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New Hampshire Pregame Show

Michael BrusPosted Monday, Jan. 31, 2000, at 2:53 AM ET

Issue one is Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

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Nearly every pundit has written off Bill Bradley. Some, such as Tom Brokaw (NBC's Meet the Press) and Susan Page (CNN's Late Edition), think Bradley's attacks on Al Gore have been "too little, too late." Others, such as Tucker Carlson (LE) and Steve Roberts (LE), think recent disclosures by the New York Times about Bradley's heart condition (he sometimes has to be anesthetized and get the heart shocked back into rhythm) will destroy any hope he has of erasing his deficit in the polls. Bill Kristol (MTP) thinks that with Gore neck-and-neck with George W. Bush in national polls, any rationale for a Bradley candidacy has vanished. The Fox News Sunday panel agrees on one thing: Bradley is on the "war path," desperately trying to salvage his campaign by attacking Gore. Sebastian Mallaby (McLaughlin Group) thinks that Bradley's charges are true: Gore has indeed mischaracterized Bradley's views. But whether Bradley's attacks help him politically is another thing. ("What New Hampshire voters know about [Bradley] now is that he's aloof and that he's a whiner," says Margaret Carlson, CNN's Capital Gang.) In interviews on several programs, Bradley continues to resist calling Gore a liar outright, saying instead that he has "mischaracterized" his views. Kate O'Beirne (CG) notes that the GOP will recycle Bradley's televised attacks in the fall campaign against Gore.

With George W. Bush and John McCain in a dead heat, most pundits agree that it's do or die for the senator from Arizona (George Stephanopoulos, ABC's This Week; Paul Gigot and Mark Shields, PBS's NewsHour With Jim Lehrer). Many argue whether a McCain win in New Hampshire would mean anything in the long term. Some, such as Mort Kondrake (FNS), think that New Hampshire will be McCain's high-water mark. Cokie Roberts (TW) notes that despite 100-percent name recognition in South Carolina and millions of dollars spent there, McCain still trails considerably in the polls. George Stephanopoulos (TW) says that Bush doesn't seem concerned about supplicating independent New Hampshire voters; by campaigning with his father, and by touting an endorsement from Jack Kemp, Bush seems more concerned with shoring up support among regular Republicans. Even if McCain doesn't win, remark Tom Brokaw (MTP) and the Fox News panel, his challenge has made Bush a better candidate. Not so, says Bill Kristol (MTP)--who still believes McCain can win in South Carolina. Kristol points out that Bush still gives the same rehearsed stump speeches, without Q&A, that he was giving months ago.

Last Word

If there were any real penalties for trying to predict New Hampshire, there'd be an awful lot of journalists living in cardboard boxes over steam vents over the years.