Last update: Thursday, November 3, 3:37pm ET.
This is a Stan implementation of Drew Linzer’s dynamic Bayesian election forecasting model, with some tweaks to incorporate national poll data, pollster house effects, correlated priors on state-by-state election results and correlated polling errors.
For more details on the original model:
Linzer, D. 2013. “Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States.” Journal of the American Statistical Association. 108(501): 124-134. (link)
The Stan and R files are available here.
1268 polls available since April 01, 2016 (including 960 state polls and 308 national polls).