Weigel

And not much momentum for anyone else. The new Hawkeye Poll, conducted by the University of Iowa, found literally zero support for Michele Bachmann among self-identified Republicans who are planning to vote in the state's caucus. The race is between Mitt Romney, who's running, and Mike Huckabee, who might not be running.

Bachmann and Ron Paul do dramatically better with non-Republicans, who can show up and vote in the party's caucuses. (The lack of a competitive Democratic race, a first since 1996, is going to have some effect in states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan, where independents can cross over.)