Weigel

The Donald makes it harder and harder to pretend he's a non-factor in 2012. From Public Policy Polling:

Trump's broken the perpetual gridlock we've found at the top of the Republican field, getting 26% to 17% for Mike Huckabee, 15% for Romney, 11% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Sarah Palin, 5% for Ron Paul, and 4% for Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty.

The trendlines from March to April:

Trump - 26% (+26)
Huckabee - 17% (-1)
Romney - 15% (-2)
Gingrich - 11% (-3)
Palin - 8% (-8)
Paul - 5% (-4)
Bachmann - 4% (-1)
Pawlenty - 4% (-1)

So there's basically an anti-establishment vote that swings over to Trump -- that's 12 points lost by Palin and Paul if Trump gets in.