Weigel

That, and not the fact that he holds a 30-point lead over his nearest rival, is the headline from the WMUR-UNH poll.

Obama's chances of winning New Hampshire depend, at this point, on his opponent. In a hypothetical race between Obama and Romney, Romney leads, 49 to 41 percent. Against Palin, Obama does much better, leading 57 to 34 percent. Against Pawlenty, Obama leads 44 to 37 percent.

Choking down a Romney candidacy, if you're a New Hampshire voter angry about Massachusetts fees and health care or a voter from elsewhere just angry about health care, is going to require evidence that he's more electable than the guy you like. And here's some. This is the first poll I've seen in a while that has Obama losing electoral votes he won in 2008.