Weigel

The Siena Poll has put out surveys on two New York swing seats in the last week. In the 20th district, which freshman Scott Murphy won in a squeaker 2009 special election, the incumbent leads by 17 points . In the 24th district, where Michael Arcuri dramatically underperformed against businessman Richard Hanna in 2008, the incumbent is winning a rematch by 8 points.

Siena has a good record on this stuff; I remember that they saw Murphy's climb-from-behind coming in that 2009 special election. Is there any other evidence that New York is resisting a Republican wave ?