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Oct. 17 2014 5:36 PM

America's Fears of Immigration, Terrorism, and Ebola Are Combining Into a Supercluster of Anxiety  

There’s been a persistent and mostly baseless claim in American politics over the last few years that Islamist terrorist have been actively attempting to enter the country through the U.S.-Mexico border. There’s also a long tradition of suggesting that immigrants crossing the border pose a serious public health risk. Ebola was roped into this months before anyone in the U.S. contracted the disease, but the fear mongering has ramped up dramatically more recently.

So, this being campaign season, it was only a matter of time before fears about immigrants, terrorism, and Ebola were combined into one rhetorical supercluster of anxiety.

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When asked in a radio interview this week whether he favored travel restrictions on countries in West Africa, Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator now running for Senate in New Hampshire argued that we have a border that’s so porous that anyone can walk across it” and “it’s naive to think that people aren’t going to be walking through here who have those types of diseases and/or other types of intent, criminal or terrorist.”

To be fair, this is a little ambiguous as to whether the people with terrorist intent are the same ones who have the diseases. More explicit was Rep. Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania who suggested that U.S. citizens who travel abroad to join jihadist groups, could intentionally infect themselves with Ebola. “Think about the job they could do, the harm they could inflict on the American people by bring this deadly disease into our cities, into schools, into our towns, and into our homes,” he said.

But it took Rep. Joe Wilson of South Carolina to really bring things full circle by suggesting that closing the border to keep out Ebola-infected Hamas fighters: “Part of their creed would be to bring persons who have Ebola into our country. It would promote their creed. And all this could be avoided by sealing the border, thoroughly. C’mon, this is the 21st century.”

This would all be quite funny if real people weren’t being unfairly stigmatized.

Ebola, first of all, is not a very potentially effective bioweapon. And even if willing recruits were somehow recruited into the Ebola jihad, there are probably easier ways for them to get into the country than by sneaking across the border.

Something also seems fundamentally absurd about a country where Ebola already is present walling itself off out of fear from a country where it isn’t. There haven’t yet been any confirmed Ebola cases in Mexico or anywhere in Latin America. Meanwhile, a Dallas healthcare worker being monitored for signs of the disease boarded a cruise and nearly disembarked in Mexico and Belize this week.

If Ebola does jump the U.S.-Mexico border at some point, I’m not sure why we’re assuming it’s going to be heading north.

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Oct. 17 2014 2:02 PM

Would the U.N. Ever Have Authorized Airstrikes Against ISIS?

Angola, Malaysia, New Zealand, Venezuela, and Spain, were elected as non-permanent members of the U.N. Security Council yesterday. Venezuela is likely to frequently join Russia and China—the so-called “sovereignty caucus” on the council—in opposing U.S. initiatives. The U.S. opposed Venezuela’s bid to join the council in 2006, but this time only registered its objections after the fact, with Amb. Samantha Power saying that the country’s “conduct at the UN has run counter to the spirit of the UN Charter.”

But the bigger story may be that Turkey, which had also put in a bid for membership, narrowly lost out on a spot to New Zealand and Spain in the “Western Europe and Others” group. This comes at a time when Turkey’s NATO allies are extremely frustrated with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government’s reluctance to participate more actively in the fight against ISIS militants across the border in Syria. (This week Turkish warplanes bombed camps of the Kurdish PKK movement in Turkey in the first major offensive since peace talks began two years ago. Given that Kurdish fighters have been on the frontlines against ISIS in both Syria and Iraq, Turkey could be seen as actively hampering the coalition.)

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Turkey’s foreign minister said after the vote that “there may be some countries disturbed by our principled stance” and that “we could not abandon our principles for the sake of getting more votes.”

The vote was also a reminder of just how irrelevant the Security Council—and international law, generally—has seemed during the latest military intervention in the Middle East. While chaired by Obama, the Council did pass an anti-ISIS resolution in late September, but it doesn’t seem like going to the U.N., as the U.S. did during the 2011 intervention in Libya, for authorization for the strikes within Syria was every seriously considered.

Rather, the administration is relying on the vague and controversial notion that the use of force is authorized when a local actor is “unwilling or unable” to contain a growing security threat. The lack of interest in the topic here is in stark contrast to Britain, where the opposition Labour party has balked at supporting airstrikes in Syria without a U.N. resolution. (They did support strikes in Iraq.)

The reason why going to the Security Council on Syria airstrikes was never seriously considered may seem obvious: Permanent member Russia would never support it. But as Jennifer Trahan notes, it’s not actually entirely out of the question that Moscow might have come around.

The Russian government, perhaps Bashar al-Assad’s staunchest international ally, has objected to the U.S. bombing Syrian territory without the Syrian government’s permission. But Syria’s foreign minister says his government is actually “OK” with the strikes “as long as they are aiming at ISIS locations.”

It’s possible to imagine a scenario under which the U.S. would promise to limit its airstrikes to ISIS, rather than Syrian government targets—as it is actually doing in practice—and get the Russian government’s buy-in. (China already seems quietly on board.)

However, this would involve admitting that the U.S. and Assad governments are increasingly becoming—if not allies—at least partners against a common enemy, something the administration maintains is not the case. It would also allow Russia to gloat that it knew all along that Assad wasn’t the real danger in the region.

Given that option, it’s not much surprise that Obama seems to be moving closer to his predecessor’s view on the necessity of working within the international system.

Oct. 15 2014 2:26 PM

Does Arming Rebels Ever Work?

The New York Times reports today on a still-classified CIA report, commissioned by the Obama administration during the debate in 2012 and 2013 over whether to increase U.S. support for the anti-Assad rebels in Syria. Senior officials tell the Times that the report “concluded that many past attempts by the agency to arm foreign forces covertly had a minimal impact on the long-term outcome of a conflict. They were even less effective, the report found, when the militias fought without any direct American support on the ground.”

Obama referred to this report in an interview with the New Yorker’s David Remnick last year, saying, “Very early in this process, I actually asked the CIA to analyze examples of America financing and supplying arms to an insurgency in a country that actually worked out well. And they couldn’t come up with much.”

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The best example they found was the support for the anti-Soviet mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s, which eventually forced a Soviet withdrawal from the country. But Afghanistan’s subsequent experience doesn’t exactly make that an encouraging case study.

The fact that the president and his advisers are talking about the unreleased document may be part of a plan to counter a line of criticism voiced by, among others, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta. That criticism—that the situation in Syria wouldn’t have spiraled out of control if the U.S. had provided more aid to the “moderate” rebels sooner—is contradicted by the CIA’s report.

The CIA’s assessment jibes with the academic literature on the topic, as George Washington University political scientist Marc Lynch recently wrote on the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog:

In general, external support for rebels almost always make wars longer, bloodier, and harder to resolve. … Worse, as the University of Maryland’s David Cunningham has shown, Syria had most of the characteristics of the type of civil war in which external support for rebels is least effective. The University of Colorado’s Aysegul Aydin and Binghamton University’s Patrick Regan have suggested that external support for a rebel group could help when all the external powers backing a rebel group are on the same page and effectively cooperate in directing resources to a common end. Unfortunately, Syria was never that type of civil war.

The U.S. occasionally aided anti-communist rebel groups throughout the Cold War—the Bay of Pigs invasion was a notable example—but it really ramped up its support with the “Reagan doctrine” of the 1980s, which involved countering Soviet support for leftist governments in the developing world by funding anti-Communist rebel groups. In addition to Afghanistan, the CIA funneled arms and money to anti-Communist rebels in Nicaragua and Afghanistan.

In the context of the Cold War, there’s an argument to be made that this strategy worked—the Soviet Union collapsed, after all—but in the actual conflicts, the outcomes were ambiguous and the wars longer and bloodier than they might have been otherwise. (Angola’s civil war lasted 27 years.)

The study of history might have led to the White House’s reluctance to have the CIA provide direct aid to the rebels. The agency, though, was involved in facilitating aid from others, Arab governments and Turkey in particular, who may have been less discriminating about the recipients of that support than the U.S. might have been. When future historians ponder the lessons of this engagement, they may conclude that historical examples led the U.S. away from one set of mistakes and toward a whole different set of errors.

Oct. 15 2014 2:12 PM

What Can We Learn From How Nigeria Contained Ebola? Not That Much.

Nigeria and Senegal could be declared Ebola-free by the World Health Organization in a few days, after clearing the requisite 42-day period with no new cases. In all, 20 people were infected in Nigeria with eight fatalities. Only one person in Senegal became infected, but that victim has recovered.

The news is cause for a cautious sigh of relief, if not total celebration. Though the global outbreak is still far from contained, the prospect of it getting loose in Lagos—Africa’s largest city and a major international commercial center—was one of the more terrifying scenarios we’ve had to contemplate over the last few weeks.

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The success these countries had in containing the outbreak is going to prompt some discussion of what lessons can be learned for other places fighting Ebola. The Financial Times attributes Nigeria’s achievement to a “rare national effort that saw the Lagos state government, federal institutions, the private sector, and global non-governmental organizations all pulling in the same direction to defeat the disease.” That national effort included a presidential decree that gave officials access to phone records and a strict system to monitor potential cases, one that involved tracking down more than 800 people who may have had contact with the infected.

But arguably, Nigeria didn’t actually do a very impressive job. A single Liberian man, who traveled to Nigeria in July, infected 11 hospital staff in the time between his admission to a hospital and when his test results were received. There might have been more infections if not for a doctors’ strike that reduced the number of people who came in contact with him. One doctor told the New York Times, “At the time, nobody was prepared for it.”

The advantage Nigeria had was that its outbreak began with this one man, who was immediately taken from the airport to a clinic, at a time when Ebola was already a crisis. By contrast, international agencies and authorities in the three countries at the epicenter of the outbreak—Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—didn’t wake up to the severity of the disease until dozens were already infected.

Rather than demonstrating the effectiveness of any particular method of Ebola control, the case of Nigeria, and the less severe case of Senegal, confirm what we’ve known about the disease from the beginning. Despite its high mortality rate, Ebola is relatively difficult to transmit from person to person, and under normal circumstances, it’s relatively easy to contain with common-sense public health measures: isolating those infected, limiting the exposure of health care workers, and tracking those who may have come in contact with them. For a variety of reasons, this was not done in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea until it was too late.

Despite early lapses, Nigeria—a country that’s not known for reliable public institutions or health care infrastructure—was able to get the outbreak under control. And despite the early lapses in Dallas, the U.S. should be able to do the same.

Of course, that's not much comfort if you live in one of the countries where it’s already out of control. 

Oct. 13 2014 3:10 PM

Vladimir Putin’s Tiger Is Lost in China

If you happen to be traipsing about China’s Heilongjiang province and come across a lost-looking Siberian tiger, the Kremlin would like it back.

Kuzya, a tiger that was personally released back into the wild by Russian President Vladimir Putin, has caused something of an international incident by wading across the Amur River that separates Russia from China.* Russian authorities, who have tracked Kuzya’s 300-mile wanderings by radio transmitter, are worried about his safety in China, where poached tiger carcasses can fetch up to $10,000 on the black market. There are also concerns that he won’t make it back into Russia before winter turns the river into impassable icy slush.

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There are only about 400 to 500 Siberian tigers left in the wild, and their protection has been a passion project for Putin. (It’s a cause that dovetails nicely with the president’s penchant for manly outdoor photo ops.) Kuzya was part of a group of cubs that were rescued after their mother was killed by a poacher. Putin presided over their release into the wild at an event in May.

The Siberian tiger is particularly endangered in China, where there are thought to be only a few dozen left. At a time when the two countries are emphasizing close ties amid strained relations between Russia and the West, it would be extremely embarrassing for China if anything were to happen to “Putin’s tiger.” Chinese authorities have set up more than 60 cameras in hopes of spotting him, and may have gotten their first lead in the case on Saturday, when hair, feces, and tracks were spotted in far northeastern Heilongjiang. But there are now also worries that Kuzya’s sister, Ilona, may be headed for the border in an area more heavily inhabited by people.

Despite all the jokes about Kuzya defecting or attempting to annex northern China on Putin’s behalf, the tigers, of course, don’t realize what country they’re in. It’s not unusual for them to move back and forth across the river in search of food.

But, as I wrote for Foreign Policy back in 2010, animals are sometimes aware of international borders. The most famous case is probably that of the Ahornia deer, the last Europeans still living inside the Iron Curtain. The deer live in the forests along the German-Czech border, now a nature preserve. During the Cold War, though, an electrified fence demarcated the border between what was then West Germany and Czechoslovakia. The fence is long gone, but more than 20 years later, the deer still won’t cross where it once stood.

Animals can establish a kind of national identity as well. Researchers at the University of Haifa have observed that Israeli gerbils behave far more cautiously than their counterparts who live just a few miles away in Jordan. This is likely due to the more industrialized agriculture on the Israeli side of the border.

Hopefully Kuzya, then, can make it back to friendlier environs before experiencing too much in the way of physical danger or culture shock.

*Correction, Oct. 13, 2014: This post originally misspelled Amur River.

Oct. 13 2014 10:24 AM

Did Russia Really Boost Its Birthrate by Promising New Mothers Prize Money and Refrigerators?

Russia is hardly the only country with worries about population decline—birthrates are falling below the replacement fertility rate in nearly every industrialized country in the world. Russia, though, has faced a significantly more dramatic demographic bust than most places. Thanks to a combination of low fertility, high mortality rates, and emigration, the Russian population declined by about 4 percent in the 20 years following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. And, this being Russia after all, discussions of the issue tend to take on a tone of bleak existential despair.

In 2006, Vladimir Putin described population decline as the country’s “most urgent problem.” In 2007, the government introduced a program to pay $11,000 to mothers who have more than one child. That same year, the AP reported on families being given days off from work (and potentially winning “money, cars, refrigerators, and other prizes”) in exchange for making babies. In 2011, Putin announced an additional $53 billion in government expenditures to boost the birthrate. And on a darker note, Putin has used the population crisis as a justification for the government’s hostility to homosexuality.

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But here’s the thing: The Russian population isn’t shrinking anymore. In fact, in 2009 it started slowly growing, largely due to migration and decreasing mortality. In 2012, the number of births exceeded the number of deaths for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, causing Putin to smirk, “Our women know what to do, and when.” Though still low, Russia’s fertility rate of 1.7 children per women is higher than the EU average.

So does this mean, as Putin put it, that the “demographic programs enacted in the past decade are, thank God, working”?

I put that question to Sergei Zakharov, a demography specialist at the National Research University’s Higher School of Economics. In short, he’s not buying it.

First of all, the population gains are likely to be short-lived. “In the next 10-20 years we will have an enormous decrease in the number of potential mothers and fathers,” he says. “There’s a very small cohort approaching reproductive age.” Young women born in the immediate post-Communist period of the early 1990s are starting to have babies of their own, but there simply aren’t that many of them. He notes that “the low birthrates of the ’90s were also an echo of the previous wave initiated by the Second World War,” during which tens of millions of Russians, many of them young people, were killed.

Russia has also taken steps to improve its life expentancy, which for men is an alarming 60.1 years. (At least that’s up from 59 a few years ago.) Anecdotally, Moscow does feel like a healthier place than when I was here nine years ago. There are fewer people smoking, and less public drinking, thanks in part to some recently passed laws. Joggers used to be the object of mockery and derision. Now they’re a fairly common sight in parks.

But even if new policies can, as promised, boost life expectancy to 74, demographic reality is again not in Russia’s favor. “Those who were born in the 1950s and ’60s are approaching retirement age,” notes Zakharov. “We’ve actually been very successful at decreasing out mortality rates, but nevertheless, the number of deaths will decrease. We’ll have a bigger life expectancy but more people will die just because of numbers.” He adds: “Until the middle of this century, I think we have very little chance of maintaining the population.”

Zakharov says it’s “too early to say” whether the maternity payments, which some in the government are now pushing to cancel amid the country’s budget crisis, are actually having that much of an effect. Most of the big recent increases in fertility have been in rural areas where the birthrate was already relatively high. In the remote Central Asian region of Tuva, the birthrate is about five children per woman—comparable to that of many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Zakharov notes—but most families in Russia’s large cities are still sticking with one or two kids. For one thing, $11,000 isn’t going to get you very far in cities as expensive as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Zakharov notes that it’s common for nationalist governments like Russia’s to make population growth a major public priority. But, he adds, “It’s very well-known that there is not any instrument that can change the ideal family size. It’s very difficult to do.” Patriotic duty or no, people are going to have the number of kids they want to have.

If Russia wants its population to grow, then encouraging procreation will probably not be sufficient. But Putin’s government has other tools in its arsenal. Assuming the recent annexation of Crimea sticks, the country just acquired an additional 2.4 million Russians.

I recently traveled to Russia thanks to a grant from the International Reporting Project at Johns Hopkins.

Oct. 10 2014 8:53 AM

Don’t Reduce Malala Yousafzai to a Cuddly Caricature of the “Bravest Girl in the World”

Earlier this week, I argued that the Nobel Peace Prize should go to nobody, “as an acknowledgment that the most notable eruptions of violence have been so grimly predictable, the result of years of individual and collective failures by governments and international institutions.” Despite that sentiment, I certainly don’t object to the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision to award this year’s prize to Malala Yousafzai and Kailash Satyarthi for, as the announcement put it, “their struggle against the suppression of children and young people and for the right of all children to education.”

The most surprising thing about the award may be how unsurprising it is. The last few peace prizes—particularly the ones given to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons last year, the EU in 2012, and Barack Obama in 2009—have been unexpected curveballs. Yousafzai, by contrast, was mentioned as a strong favorite in nearly every story leading up to Friday’s prize announcement.

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The 17-year-old, who was shot in the head by the Taliban in 2012 for campaigning for girls’ education in Pakistan’s Swat Valley, has become an international household name, particularly following her high-profile speech to the United Nations last year, and has authored a best-selling memoir.

Satyarthi, a 60-year-old campaigner against child labor in India, is much less well-known. He’s known for mounting raids on factories employing children—sometimes facing down armed guards—as well as running a rehabilitation center for liberated children, organizing the Global March Against Child Labour, and setting up a certification system to ensure that carpets are made without child labor.

While Yousafzai and Satyarthi are both admirable and inspiring figures, I think it’s worth stepping back and assessing the Nobel committee’s mission. In its early years, the Nobel Peace Prize was most often given to honor a specific accomplishment in peacemaking—a treaty drafted or a conflict ended. (This is why some individuals not exactly known for their pacifism—Yasser Arafat and Henry Kissinger to name a couple—have peace prizes.) But overall, it’s more often been given to individuals involved in the struggle against a particular pressing problem or injustice. (Think Al Gore or Aung San Suu Kyi.) This year is obviously an example of this second type of prize.

While the (somewhat inexplicable) prestige of the Nobel can certainly bring attention to worthy individuals, there’s less evidence to suggest it helps their causes. For instance, the prize given to human rights activist Liu Xiaobo in 2010 has probably made it less likely that Chinese authorities will let him out of prison.

Some also find the western media’s fascination with Yousafzai a little troubling. When she was passed over for the prize last year, blogger and technology researcher Zeynep Tufekci argued in a widely read post that in the Malala narrative “our multi-decade involvement in Pakistan is reduced to finding a young woman we admire that we all want to take home as if to put on a shelf to adore.” Whereas, she continued, “what the world is desperately lacking, and the Nobel Committee, for once, rewarded, is the kind of boring, institutional work of peace that advances the lives of people.”

There is something irritatingly smug and condescending about some of the coverage of “the bravest girl in the world.” It was a particular low point when, on The Daily Show, Jon Stewart said “I want to adopt you” to a young woman who’s spoken very publicly about the support she’s received from her father—a pretty brave guy in his own right.

But that’s our problem, not hers. My guess is that someone’s who’s comfortable telling the president of the United States to his face that his military policies are fueling terrorism isn’t going to let herself be reduced to a cuddly caricature. And in any case, it was probably wise for the Nobel committee to pair the very young global celebrity with a relatively unheralded activist with years of work behind him.

The committee gave its last two awards to institutions—the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the European Union—and not particularly popular ones at that. In a year in which governments and international institutions seemed particularly ineffectual in dealing with mounting violence and instability, giving the award to individuals seems appropriate. Dividing the peace prize between an Indian and a Pakistani also seems like a deliberate statement at a time when tensions are once again escalating between the perennial adversaries.

So, congratulations to the Nobel committee: If you were going to give the award to someone, you could have done a lot worse.

Oct. 9 2014 4:01 PM

Kim Jong-un Hasn’t Been Seen for 37 Days. Where Could the North Korean Leader Possibly Be?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public since Sept. 3. The state propaganda machine that normally meticulously documents his presence at rallies, parades, party meetings, and lubricant factories has been conspicuously silent. This naturally has led to rampant speculation about what he’s up to.

There are reports that he’s suffering from an undisclosed illness. He has been seen limping lately. Gout has been mentioned as a possible affliction for the rotund leader.

Oct. 8 2014 2:36 PM

Why Kobani Matters

The latest focal point of the Syrian civil war is Kobani, a small city near the Turkish border where ISIS militants have been battling Kurdish forces since mid-September. ISIS flags are reportedly now flying over parts of the city, which has been under control of local Kurdish forces since 2012. U.S. airstrikes don’t appear to have done much to stop the Islamic State’s advance, and U.S. officials now say the city is on the verge of falling.

 

This is important for geographical, humanitarian, and political reasons. If Kobani falls, it will give ISIS control of a wide swath of the Syria-Turkey border, putting it one step closer to establishing the “state” implied in its name. Taking Kobani would also establish a corridor linking the group’s de facto capital in the eastern city of Raqqa with Aleppo in the west. Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, is also probably its most important battlefield. It’s the opposition rebels’ last major urban stronghold, but they’ve been besieged for months by both Syrian government forces and ISIS. If it falls, it will be both a humanitarian catastrophe for the city’s 2 million people and a devastating blow to the non-ISIS rebels.

Oct. 8 2014 12:08 PM

Top Russian Officials Are Starting to Realize That the Country’s Economy Is in Big Trouble

MOSCOW—You wouldn’t know it from the Chanel boutiques and Maserati dealerships lining the boulevards inside Moscow’s Garden Ring, but economic conditions in Russia are becoming dire. The ruble has weakened to record lows not seen since the 1990s, capital is bleeding out of the country for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, and the economy is projected to grow a piddling 0.5 percent this year.

 

You wouldn’t realize any of this from the statements of Russia’s president. At a forum last week, Vladimir Putin ensured investors that the country has enough reserves to implement all of its budget proposals, including an upcoming $20 billion increase in military spending next year. The president certainly seemed confident, telling investors that Russia’s “strategic course remains unchanged” and that he foresees “a country that is strong, flourishing, free, and open to the world.”

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