Weigel

Florida’s 13th District: The Most Important Election in America (Tonight)

I’ve written a lot about the special election in FL-13, but haven’t brought the information into one bite-sized blog post. Since Vox.com isn’t yet around to explain this for us, I’ll just have to try.

What is Florida’s 13th district?

It’s a compact portion of Pinellas County, a ridiculously pleasant peninsula that sits between the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay. 

Which party does it favor?

Ah, that’s the question. Five months ago, Florida Rep. Bill Young announced that this term would be his last; then, he passed away. Democrats had already put FL-13 on their map, because it had been trending their way for years. George W. Bush won the district twice, but Barack Obama won it by 4 points in 2008 and 2 points in 2012. For Democrats to have any chance of taking the House – and nobody thinks they can this year, but anyway – they need to win districts like this to make up for likely losses in blood-red open seats.

So who’s running?

Democrats nominated Alex Sink, the last statewide elected Democrat in Florida, who had to move 15 minutes to become a district resident. Republicans reluctantly, and after a primary, nominated a slick former Young aide/lobbyist named David Jolly. The Libertarian Party nominated 27-year old Lucas Overby, whom Republicans worry about; American Crossroads tapped Rand Paul to record robocalls asking Overby voters to pick Jolly instead. (It’s not entirely clear that Overby voters are natural Republicans, though. In last year’s race for governor of Virginia, Libertarian Robert Sarvis ended up taking more votes from the Democratic candidate than from the Republican. And Overby has run a surprisingly…

Okay, that’s enough about the Libertarian.

Sorry, force of habit.

Who’s winning?

We don’t know yet, but Sink started the race with an advantage. Jolly was bloodied by a primary that couldn’t have been more Floridian. The first post-primary poll gave Sink a 7-point advantage, with Overby taking 4 percent. The last poll, a Public Policy Polling study conducted for the League of Conservation Voters, gave Sink a 3-point lead, with the Libertarian at 6 percent. Sink has never cracked 50 percent, but Jolly has only led in one poll, a Chamber of Commerce survey that had him up 44-42

You’re useless. Who do smart people think will win?

Well, there have been quite a few hint-nudge stories, sourced from Republican operatives, about how Jolly was blowing it. The latest, from Politico, suggested that Jolly had undermined the national groups working for him, run cruddy ads (hey, those sound like the sort of things angry consultants would say), and basically failed to discredit Sink. My time in the district left me deeply unimpressed by both candidates, but the Jolly allies’ message that Sink had frittered away state finances and run a predatory bank didn’t hit as hard as Sink’s message that Jolly was a lobbyist. People strongly dislike lobbyists, especially when, like Jolly, they pretend that they know how Washington works but totally haven’t been enriched by the knowledge.

I thought this was a referendum on Obamacare.

To an extent, it is. The health care law has affected tens of thousands of people in the district. Some of them found coverage for the first time. Some lost coverage that they’d liked. Few people saw their bills shrink. But like I was saying, American Crossroads used some of its ad money to attack Sink’s own record, and Sink’s allies never really messaged on “Obamacare.”

Where can I watch this train wreck?

You’re in luck. This is a one-county race, and the Pinellas web site has a map of results that will be updated all night. Instead of being one of those idiots who mindlessly reacts to the first raw votes, you can be a smart person who knows which precincts are in. The results for the 2012 race are here. If the map is considerably bluer tonight, you know who that’s good for. If Jolly keeps most of Young’s territory, he makes that not-so-rare transition from D.C. insider to congressman.