Today’s too-early 2016 primary poll comes from ABC News and the Washington Post—1,003 adults, roughly the same number of Republicans and Democrats. The fun bit:
When I teased TNR’s Noam Scheiber about this result, shaming him for his 2013 piece that portrayed a Warren-style populist surge as Clinton’s worst nightmare, he gave it right back:
@daveweigel Ah, shit. Thats great. Also, at this pt in 08 cycle Obama doesnt even show up in polls. As in not at all. http://t.co/q3UDuuKUvx
— Noam Scheiber (@noamscheiber) January 30, 2014
True! But Clinton never, ever had a lead like this. In the earliest WaPo poll of the 2008 primary, in December 2006, Clinton was at 39 percent. Her best-ever showing in the poll, in October 2007, was 53 percent. Her biggest-ever lead, 33 points, came in that same poll. I think we can agree that 73 is larger than 53, and a 61-point lead is larger than a 33-point lead. The media’s crisis of a boring Democratic Party continues.*
As to the Republican race: Well, OK, it’s clearer than ever that the era of Chris Christie being the sure-thing candidate who could beat Hillary and thus win over conservative skeptics began in November 2013 and ended two months later.
*I’d still like to see a poll that asked Democrats whether they’d back Hillary or want another candidate—no names, just the idea of the alternative. That said, it’s not like Joe Biden has low name ID.
