Checking my email confirms this: Shortly before 10 a.m., a House GOP aide asked what my over/under was on Democratic votes for the Upton bill. I guessed 38. The aide suggested that, sure, the "floor" was the number of Democrats who voted for a toothless attempt to delay the employer mandate by a year: 35. (The administration just delayed the mandate without asking.) But maybe the count would go higher?
It did, just barely. Thirty-nine Democrats voted for the Upton bill. Four Republicans opposed it: Oklahoma Rep. John Bridenstine, Georgia Rep. Paul Broun, Texas Rep. Ralph Hall, and Kentucky Rep. Tom Massie. (Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who said the bill was a "favor" to Barack Obama, voted for it anyway. It probably matters that he's the one libertarian Republican fending off a moderate primary challenge.)
Guys who hate Obamacare (3): Georgia Rep. John Barrow, Utah Rep. Jim Matheson, and North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre all hail from red districts and vote against Obamacare whenever they can.
2014 Senate candidates (2): Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley and Michigan Rep. Gary Peters, both their party's picks to replace old bulls in the Senate, voted "aye." This put Braley at odds with Tom Harkin, whom he wants to replace.
Swing seaters (33): Arizona Rep. Ron Barber, California Rep. Ami Bera, New York Rep. Tim Bishop, California Rep. Julia Brownley, Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, California Rep. Jim Costa, Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, Illinois Rep. Tammy Duckworth—I could go on, but almost every other Democratic "no" came from a seat that was won in 2012, or whose last race was decided in the single digits.*
Ron Kind (1): Yeah, he holds a western Wisconsin seat that was gerrymandered to be safer (this to shore up freshman Republican Sean Duffy), but he might run for Senate or governor one day. Maybe in 2016, when Ron Johnson—author of the the would-be "Upton bill" of the Senate—is up for a second term.
*Correction, Nov. 15, 2013: This post originally misspelled Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene's first name.
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