The new Quinnipiac poll in New York confirms that Carlos Danger has dealt a mortal blow to Anthony Weiner's mayoral bid. After weeks of slugging his way into around 25 percent support—not quite a "front-runner," but a solid bet for a runoff berth—Weiner has collapsed to 16 percent. Back in the spring, when "ha ha, an Anthony Weiner comeback" was a slow-news-day story, Weiner was at 15 percent. He's lost all the ground he gained since he jumped into the race.
If you don't want to read the poll, or if your interest in a municipal mayoral election peaked long ago, here are the highlights.
- Voters were asked, "How much would you say the phrase 'has a strong personal moral character' describes Anthony Weiner? Does it describe him a great deal, a good amount, somewhat, not so much or not at all?" Fourteen percent said "a great deal" or "a good amount." Fourteen percent.
- Weiner's complete collapse is dark news for City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, who would be the historic first female mayor of the city if she weren't the most right-leaning candidate in the primary. In a runoff with Weiner, she's up better than 2-1. In a runoff with Bill Thompson, she's down by 10. And that includes her keeping 33 percent support with black voters, which against a black candidate seems completely unlikely.
- Bill de Blasio, the city's public advocate and the most credible lefty in the race, now polls at 21 percent. He reminds me of Rick Santorum in Iowa in 2012. Oh, not his politics! I mean that Santorum, by general agreement, was the candidate most in sync with caucus-goers, but most caucus-goers wrote him off as a spoiler. Only when late, post-Gingrich-collapse polls showed Santorum surging did his natural electorate find him—he quickly rose from fifth place to a narrow first. If de Blasio convinces white liberals that he can win, he can make the runoff.