Iowa Caucuses 2016: Hillary Clinton's 59-Point Lead, and Other Poll Potpourri

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
July 11 2013 4:19 PM

Iowa Caucuses 2016: Hillary Clinton's 59-Point Lead, and Other Poll Potpourri

"My lead over you is this big."

Photo by Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images

Public Policy Polling is out with another one of its way-too-early ballot tests for the 2016 primaries. I don't endorse this, but, whatever—data is data. What do Iowans have to tell us about 2016 and their caucuses?

David Weigel David Weigel

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics

Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field by 59 points. In a ballot test against Joe Biden and seven other Democrats, Clinton wins 71 percent of the vote. For some perspective, Sen. Tom Harkin won the 1992 caucuses with 76 percent of the vote, and he's the senator from Iowa.

I can hear you say it: "Didn't Clinton lead by a lot in 2005, too?" Not by this much. According to RCP's index of Iowa polls, Clinton never led the 2008 field by more than 11 points in any legitimate poll. (I don't count the American Research Group, which badly botched the election—but if you do, Clinton maxed out at +17 points with them.) Clinton's actually gained ground since November 2012, when she was at 58 percent in this poll, and up only 41 points over Biden.


Rand Paul up, Marco Rubio down. Here I'll just post what's happened in this poll since February.

Rand Paul - 18% (+3)
Chris Christie - 16% (+4)
Paul Ryan - 15% (+5)
Jeb Bush - 14% (+0)
Marco Rubio - 11% (-5)
Ted Cruz - 10% (N/A—they polled Huckabee, not him, last time)
Rick Santorum - 6% (N/A)
Bobby Jindal - 2% (-1)
Susana Martinez - 1% (-3)

That's mostly noise, but when PPP took Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry out of the poll, the vote split between three very different people. Voters generally moved away from Rubio. Ryan and Paul have maintained sort of theoretical support for immigration reform, while opposing the Senate bill—the bill that's all over Rubio.

Rick Santorum has no deep support. The guy won this state's nonbinding caucuses in 2012, and already 28 percent of voters have no opinion of him. His favorable rating's comparable to Bush's and Paul's, much lower than Ryan's. Santorum will surely work Iowa hard again (he's been delayed from some campaign work for family reasons), but eventually people will realize he succeeded in 2012 because he was the last non-Mormon guy* standing.

Liberals love Elizabeth Warren. In a hypothetical scenario where Clinton and Biden skip the race, Warren leads the Democratic field at 20 percent.

*This post originally referred to Santorum as the "last Protestant standing," which is probably the least correct thing anyone has ever said about Santorum. Fixed.

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics



Forget Oculus Rift

This $25 cardboard box turns your phone into an incredibly fun virtual reality experience.

The Congressional Republican Digging Through Scientists’ Grant Proposals

The 2014 Kansas City Royals Show the Value of Building a Mediocre Baseball Team

The GOP Won’t Win Any Black Votes With Its New “Willie Horton” Ad

Whole Foods Is Desperate for Customers to Feel Warm and Fuzzy Again

The XX Factor

I’m 25. I Have $250.03.

My doctors want me to freeze my eggs.

The XX Factor
Oct. 20 2014 6:17 PM I’m 25. I Have $250.03. My doctors want me to freeze my eggs.

Smash and Grab

Will competitive Senate contests in Kansas and South Dakota lead to more late-breaking races in future elections?

I Am 25. I Don’t Work at Facebook. My Doctors Want Me to Freeze My Eggs.

These Companies in Japan Are More Than 1,000 Years Old

  News & Politics
The World
Oct. 21 2014 11:40 AM The U.S. Has Spent $7 Billion Fighting the War on Drugs in Afghanistan. It Hasn’t Worked. 
Oct. 21 2014 1:12 PM The Global Millionaires Club Is Booming and Losing Its Exclusivity
The Vault
Oct. 21 2014 2:23 PM A Data-Packed Map of American Immigration in 1903
  Double X
The XX Factor
Oct. 21 2014 1:12 PM George Tiller’s Murderer Threatens Another Abortion Provider, Claims Right of Free Speech
  Slate Plus
Behind the Scenes
Oct. 21 2014 1:02 PM Where Are Slate Plus Members From? This Weird Cartogram Explains. A weird-looking cartogram of Slate Plus memberships by state.
Brow Beat
Oct. 21 2014 1:47 PM The Best Way to Fry an Egg
Oct. 21 2014 10:43 AM Social Networking Didn’t Start at Harvard It really began at a girls’ reform school.
  Health & Science
Climate Desk
Oct. 21 2014 11:53 AM Taking Research for Granted Texas Republican Lamar Smith continues his crusade against independence in science.
Sports Nut
Oct. 20 2014 5:09 PM Keepaway, on Three. Ready—Break! On his record-breaking touchdown pass, Peyton Manning couldn’t even leave the celebration to chance.