Iowa Caucuses 2016: Hillary Clinton's 59-Point Lead, and Other Poll Potpourri

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
July 11 2013 4:19 PM

Iowa Caucuses 2016: Hillary Clinton's 59-Point Lead, and Other Poll Potpourri

165302283
"My lead over you is this big."

Photo by Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images

Public Policy Polling is out with another one of its way-too-early ballot tests for the 2016 primaries. I don't endorse this, but, whatever—data is data. What do Iowans have to tell us about 2016 and their caucuses?

David Weigel David Weigel

David Weigel, a former Slate politics reporter, is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics

Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field by 59 points. In a ballot test against Joe Biden and seven other Democrats, Clinton wins 71 percent of the vote. For some perspective, Sen. Tom Harkin won the 1992 caucuses with 76 percent of the vote, and he's the senator from Iowa.

I can hear you say it: "Didn't Clinton lead by a lot in 2005, too?" Not by this much. According to RCP's index of Iowa polls, Clinton never led the 2008 field by more than 11 points in any legitimate poll. (I don't count the American Research Group, which badly botched the election—but if you do, Clinton maxed out at +17 points with them.) Clinton's actually gained ground since November 2012, when she was at 58 percent in this poll, and up only 41 points over Biden.

Advertisement

Rand Paul up, Marco Rubio down. Here I'll just post what's happened in this poll since February.

Rand Paul - 18% (+3)
Chris Christie - 16% (+4)
Paul Ryan - 15% (+5)
Jeb Bush - 14% (+0)
Marco Rubio - 11% (-5)
Ted Cruz - 10% (N/A—they polled Huckabee, not him, last time)
Rick Santorum - 6% (N/A)
Bobby Jindal - 2% (-1)
Susana Martinez - 1% (-3)

That's mostly noise, but when PPP took Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry out of the poll, the vote split between three very different people. Voters generally moved away from Rubio. Ryan and Paul have maintained sort of theoretical support for immigration reform, while opposing the Senate bill—the bill that's all over Rubio.

Rick Santorum has no deep support. The guy won this state's nonbinding caucuses in 2012, and already 28 percent of voters have no opinion of him. His favorable rating's comparable to Bush's and Paul's, much lower than Ryan's. Santorum will surely work Iowa hard again (he's been delayed from some campaign work for family reasons), but eventually people will realize he succeeded in 2012 because he was the last non-Mormon guy* standing.

Liberals love Elizabeth Warren. In a hypothetical scenario where Clinton and Biden skip the race, Warren leads the Democratic field at 20 percent.

*This post originally referred to Santorum as the "last Protestant standing," which is probably the least correct thing anyone has ever said about Santorum. Fixed.

David Weigel, a former Slate politics reporter, is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics

TODAY IN SLATE

Medical Examiner

Here’s Where We Stand With Ebola

Even experienced international disaster responders are shocked at how bad it’s gotten.

It Is Very, Very Stupid to Compare Hope Solo to Ray Rice

The U.S. Is So, So Far Behind Europe on Clean Energy

Even if You Don’t Like Batman, You Might Like Gotham

Friends Was the Last Purely Pleasurable Sitcom

The Eye

This Whimsical Driverless Car Imagines Transportation in 2059

Politics

Meet the New Bosses

How the Republicans would run the Senate.

A Woman Who Escaped the Extreme Babymaking Christian Fundamentalism of Quiverfull

How Moscow’s Anti-War March Revealed One of Russia’s Deepest Divides

  News & Politics
Politics
Sept. 22 2014 6:30 PM What Does It Mean to Be an American? Ted Cruz and Scott Brown think it’s about ideology. It’s really about culture.
  Business
Moneybox
Sept. 22 2014 5:38 PM Apple Won't Shut Down Beats Music After All (But Will Probably Rename It)
  Life
Outward
Sept. 22 2014 4:45 PM Why Can’t the Census Count Gay Couples Accurately?
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 22 2014 7:43 PM Emma Watson Threatened With Nude Photo Leak for Speaking Out About Women's Equality
  Slate Plus
Slate Plus
Sept. 22 2014 1:52 PM Tell Us What You Think About Slate Plus Help us improve our new membership program.
  Arts
Brow Beat
Sept. 22 2014 7:46 PM Azealia Banks’ New Single Is Her Best in Years
  Technology
Future Tense
Sept. 22 2014 6:27 PM Should We All Be Learning How to Type in Virtual Reality?
  Health & Science
Medical Examiner
Sept. 22 2014 4:34 PM Here’s Where We Stand With Ebola Even experienced international disaster responders are shocked at how bad it’s gotten.
  Sports
Sports Nut
Sept. 18 2014 11:42 AM Grandmaster Clash One of the most amazing feats in chess history just happened, and no one noticed.