Poll: Rubio Support Among Hispanic Voters Is Only One Point Ahead of Romney's

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
July 3 2013 9:45 AM

Poll: Rubio Support Among Hispanic Voters Is Only One Point Ahead of Romney's

A new survey finds that if the 2016 presidential election were held today, 28 percent of Hispanics would support Marco Rubio. In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney got 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Latino Decisions went into the field with a series of questions about the progress of immigration reform through Congress. The lede, according to them, is that Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Paul Ryan surge to Hispanic support over 40 percent—over 50 percent for Rubio—after this question is read.

Currently the U.S. Congress is debating a comprehensive immigration reform bill that would provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants in the United States. Republican Marco Rubio [or Paul Ryan, or Jeb Bush] played a key role in helping to pass this bill and with Rubio’s [etc.] leadership undocumented immigrants receive legal status and a path to citizenship.

That's a pretty idealized version of the question, and theory of what could happen. What if the bill that passes has a narrower path to citizenship? What if it mostly consists of more funds and standards for border control? We already know that isn't popular with reformers, so we can assume Hispanic voters dislike that outcome, too.


OK: So, what do Hispanic voters think of Rubio for at least trying to pass a bill? Very little!

When asked who they would support if the 2016 presidential election were today, no more than 28% supported Rubio, no more than 25% supported Ryan, and no more than 30% supported Bush.  On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton is the runaway favorite among Latinos, and would take anywhere from 66% to 74% of the Latino vote if the election were today.

But Mitt Romney, who's currently the goat of the "GOP rebranding," what with his endorsement of "self-deportation," got 27 percent of the Hispanic vote. Rubio or Ryan could completely change their rhetoric—and Rubio has made a 180 flip in the way he's talked about "amnesty" since he won his 2010 race—and make no gains whatsoever.

David Weigel is a Slate political reporter. 



Crying Rape

False rape accusations exist, and they are a serious problem.

Scotland Learns That Breaking Up a Country Is Hard to Do

The Most Terrifying Thing About Ebola: It Preys on the Compassionate

The Music Industry Is Ignoring Some of the Best Black Women Singing R&B

How Will You Carry Around Your Huge New iPhone? Apple Pants!


Theo’s Joint and Vanessa’s Whiskey

No sitcom did the “Very Special Episode” as well as The Cosby Show.


The Other Huxtable Effect

Thirty years ago, The Cosby Show gave us one of TV’s great feminists.

Cliff Huxtable Explains the World: Five Lessons From TV’s Greatest Dad

Why Television Needs a New Cosby Show Right Now

  News & Politics
The World
Sept. 19 2014 12:33 PM The Precarious Predicament of Russia’s Neighbors
Sept. 19 2014 12:09 PM How Accelerators Have Changed Startup Funding
The Eye
Sept. 19 2014 12:50 PM This Whimsical Driverless Car Imagines Transportation in 2059
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 19 2014 11:33 AM Planned Parenthood Is About to Make It a Lot Easier to Get Birth Control
  Slate Plus
Slate Picks
Sept. 19 2014 12:00 PM What Happened at Slate This Week? The Slatest editor tells us to read well-informed skepticism, media criticism, and more.
Brow Beat
Sept. 19 2014 12:10 PM Watch the Trailer for Big Eyes, a Tim Burton Movie About People With Normal-Sized Eyes
Future Tense
Sept. 19 2014 12:38 PM Forward, March! Nine leading climate scientists urge you to attend the People’s Climate March.
  Health & Science
Medical Examiner
Sept. 19 2014 12:13 PM The Most Terrifying Thing About Ebola  The disease threatens humanity by preying on humanity.
Sports Nut
Sept. 18 2014 11:42 AM Grandmaster Clash One of the most amazing feats in chess history just happened, and no one noticed.