The Conservative Poll Un-Skewer Who Basically Called the Election in South Carolina

Weigel
Reporting on Politics and Policy.
May 8 2013 9:50 AM

The Conservative Poll Un-Skewer Who Basically Called the Election in South Carolina

While I was driving around South Carolina, talking to the very selective sample of voters who felt like talking to me, a conservative reader was calling the election. I didn't listen to him. But for posterity, and to be fair, here's what reader John Duncan sent me at 2:12 p.m. yesterday, nearly five hours before polls closed, with the email subject "skewed." No pollster was even close to him in their assessments of the race. Even the Sanford campaign was surprised when his victory margin closed in on 10 points.

FINAL SANFORD PREDICTION: Sanford 55 ECB: 45 

Looking at the polls Real Red Racing gave us a somewhat accurate snapshot last week although they undersample the Romney/Republican vote by 4 points and oversample women voters by 5 points so the result is they showed a tie when in reality if you correct it to 2012 demographics which is probably going to be the same tonight (there is no case for the demo changing in just a few months so pollsters are wrong to not correct the weighting properly). 

They also bizarrely think as high as 7% of voters were undecided at this stage when that's not true in a House generally it's less than 4% in the final few week who actually make up their mind and 2% or so who make up their mind on the final day.

If you correct their demo's then it put Sanford ahead about 52% rather than the 46-46 tie they claim it was.

I believe he was at 52% last week and that was pretty accurate as the remainder 4% of voters make up their mind. 

PPP poll: 2 weeks ago these morons told us that the demographics would be Romney-Obama 50/45 voters when just 6 months ago it was 58/42. What on earth makes them think that? That's a question for PPP and they will probably never answer it. This poll unsurprisingly showed Sanford losing badly. Maybe that's what Pelosi wanted to hear?

Not to worry though! The liars came out at the last minute and told us the truth: That Sanford was ahead

They said Sanford was 47% and she was on 46%, with 4% voting green (if you can believe that...) and 4% are still humming and hawing about who to vote. They said the voter dynamic would this time be 55% Romney 45% Nobama.

Reality check: The greens are not going to pull 4% of the vote and 4% are not undecided. More like 2% or less at this stage. Greens will be lucky to get 1%.

So that means we have Sanford ahead by a point, a 3% undersampling of Romney backers from November when a 5% change in the sample from 2 weeks ago produced a 9 point swing and 5% of votes unaccounted for. 

If you correct this poll to November this is what happens:

Sanford: 55% Colbert-Bush 45: Greens: Whatever

How did I get this swing to reality? 

Simple: I'm assuming voter Demos will not change today and so if a 5% correction of the voter sampling between both of PPP's polls gave Sanford 9 points I'm assuming he gets another 5 points from another 3% correction and that's being kind to the Democrat as I've just halved the over-sampling to factor in any anti-Sanford feeling. 

Then I've taken the 4% which is unaccounted for and let it break 50/50 which is fair enough. He won't lose them that badly remember he should be winning them 60% or so and the greens will get 1% or less.

That leaves Sanford going from 47% in PPP's joke of a poll to 54% which is what I predict he will win and I've given him another 1% cuz I'm being too generous to the Democrat's anyway. 

FINAL PREDICTION

Sanford: 55
Colbert-Bush: 44.5
Green dude: 0.5

I think this adds up to 100% I could be wrong... maybe ask the geniuses at PPP !!

When this happens Politico, AP, nearly every major mainstream media outlet, John Boehner and Nancy Pelosi will all be exposed as a bunch of knaves and fools. 

PPP will also be shown as a semi-fraudulent polling outfit who had a House race 2 weeks ago swing 20 points in the other direction.

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics

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