I’ve been looking for patterns in the solid “aye” vote for last night’s package, which only won over 85 Republicans.* A couple of guideposts:
The retirees (15): Judy Biggert (R-Ill.), Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.), Bob Dold (R-Ill.), David Dreier (R-Calif.), Jo Ann Emerson (R-Mo.), Eton Gallegly (R-Calif.), Wally Herger (R-Calif.), Steve LaTourette (R-Ohio) Nan Hayworth (R-N.Y.), Tim Johnson (R-Ill.), Dan Lungren (R-Calif.), Don Manzullo (R-Ill.), John Sullivan (R-Okla.), Bob Turner (R-N.Y.). These members either retired, lost primaries, or lost general elections. Only five of them are being replaced by Democrats.
The freshmen (19): Lou Barletta (R-Pa.), Dan Benishek (R-Mich.), Jeff Denham (R-Calif.), Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.), Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.), Richard Hanna (R-N.Y.), Joe Heck (R-Nev.), Jamie Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.), Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), Tom Marino (R-Pa.), Tom Meehan (R-Pa.), Kristi Noem (R-S.D.), Tom Reed (R-N.Y.), Reid Ribble (R-Wis.), John Runyan (R-N.J.), Steve Womack (R-Ark.). All were elected in 2010. Some, like Noem and Lance, represent areas that would be hurt if the financial industry panicked. Some, like Benishek and Womack, represent mostly rural districts. No clear pattern here.
The rest (51): Rodney Alexander (R-La.), John Boehner (R-Ohio), Kevin Brady (R-Texas), Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), Kevin Calvert (R-Calif.), Dave Camp (R-Mich.), Howard Coble (R-N.C.), Tom Cole (R-Okla.), Anders Crenshaw (R-Fla.), Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.), Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.),Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), Peter King (R-N.Y.), Jon Kline (R-Minn.), Leonard Lance (R-N.J.), Bob Latta (R-Ohio), Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.), Frank Lucas (R-Okla), Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo), Buck McKeon (R-Ca), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), Candice Miller (R-Mich.), Gary Miller (R-Calif.), Tim Murphy (R-Pa.), Joe Pitts (R-Pa.), Todd Platts (R-Pa.), Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), Hal Rogers (R-Ky.), Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Calif.), Ed Royce (R-Calif.), Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), Aaron Schock (R-Ill.), Bud Schuster (R-Pa.), John Shimkus (R-Ill.), Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), Chris Smith (R-N.J.), Lamar Smith (R-Texas), Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.), Mac Thornberry (R-Ga.), Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio), Fred Upton (R-Mich.), Greg Walden (R-Ore.), Bill Young (R-Fla.), Don Young (R-Alaska). It’s a mixture of people looking ahead (Gerlach and Shock have ambitions to run statewide), people who run committees, and people who are, generally, to the left of the conference.
So what do we have here? Do we have a rump of Republicans who might vote for compromise bills? That’s not clear. Do we have a rump that can be convinced to break the tax “pledge” and vote for revenue? We do, but keep in mind how sui generis this situation was. As of midnight yesterday, Republicans were voting to cut most tax rates from the new, post-Bush baseline. And only 68 members who’ll be in the new Congress went along with that. In a few months, when they get the debt limit package and the budget, that’s not nearly enough Republicans to make a deal with Senate Democrats.
UPDATE: John Stanton highlights a quote from Marco Rubio that makes the point:
Among the few senators who opposed the deal, Sen. Marco Rubio nevertheless defended those in his party who had voted for the tax hike.
“Taxes went up today automatically, so Republicans didn’t vote to raise taxes,” Rubio said.
Correction, Jan. 2, 2013: This post originally misstated the number of Republican votes for the fiscal cliff tax deal. It was 85, not 81.
