Item one: The Romney campaign announces $111.8 million in new money in the first half of October. It will, definitively, outspend Obama-Biden.
Item two, via Andrew Sheinin:
Republican vice presidential hopeful Paul Ryan accused President Barack Obama on Wednesday of abandoning America’s founding principles and told Georgia donors their money will help fuel the fight in battleground states... A campaign aide said about 600 people paid a minimum of $500 for a cocktail-party setting with limited seating and a cash bar at Cobb Energy Centre. A $10,000 contribution bought a photograph with Ryan and $25,000 bought a seat at a round-table discussion.
Sure, these fundraisers are scheduled too far in advance to scrap if the campaign's doing fine. But why keep the veep candidate in solid states talking to wealthy people who paid too much for dinner if you are closing the election with more money than the incumbent? Jonathan Chait's theories are looking more and more sound.
Alternative theory, because it's easy to forget as these numbers come out: The Obama campaign and allies bought TV time in advance of Romney, which gave them more value on the dollar. They've continued to out-ad Romney in swing states. Romney-Ryan can use the overflowing tip jar to buy last-minute ads in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, which -- Chait again -- will get reporters writing "momentum" stories even if neither campaign expects the states to flip.