Polls: Good News for Romney in Swing States, Bad News for GOP Senate Candidates

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
Oct. 3 2012 10:35 AM

Polls: Good News for Romney in Swing States, Bad News for GOP Senate Candidates

The headline, I guess, is that Barack Obama is holding his lead in Ohio. But aren't the new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls really good news for Mitt Romney? After one of the weakest Septembers you could imagine for an underdog candidate, Romney is back in contention for 42 electoral votes in the new South.

In Florida, after the RNC, the NBC/Marist gave Obama a 49-44 lead in Florida. It's now a 47-46 lead. In Virginia, in September the same poll gave Obama a 49-44 lead in Virginia. It's now 48-46. We don't have terrific breakdowns by race, economic status, etc, but these are both states where voting's slightly more cumbersome than it was in 2008; there's absentee voting now, but in Florida, early voting has been cut back.

Advertisement

And this is just objectively pro-Romney movement. In Virginia and Ohio, Republican Senate candidates have started to sink under the waves, despite massive third party spending on their behalf. In Virginia, it's Tim Kaine opening a 49-44 lead after being tied for months. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown's lead has grown from 49-42 to 50-41. Florida's movement has been a little more generically pro-Republican, with Sen. Bill Nelson watching his lead move from 51-37 to 52-41. You've got more ticket-splitting, and it doesn't benefit Obama.

David Weigel, a former Slate politics reporter, is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics

TODAY IN SLATE

Medical Examiner

Here’s Where We Stand With Ebola

Even experienced international disaster responders are shocked at how bad it’s gotten.

U.S. Begins Airstrikes Against ISIS in Syria

The U.S. Is So, So Far Behind Europe on Clean Energy

It Is Very, Very Stupid to Compare Hope Solo to Ray Rice

Friends Was the Last Purely Pleasurable Sitcom

The Eye

This Whimsical Driverless Car Imagines Transportation in 2059

Politics

Meet the New Bosses

How the Republicans would run the Senate.

A Woman Who Escaped the Extreme Babymaking Christian Fundamentalism of Quiverfull

How in the World Did Turkey Just Get 46 Hostages Back From ISIS?

  News & Politics
Politics
Sept. 22 2014 6:30 PM What Does It Mean to Be an American? Ted Cruz and Scott Brown think it’s about ideology. It’s really about culture.
  Business
Moneybox
Sept. 22 2014 1:37 PM Subprime Loans Are Back! And believe it or not, that’s a good thing.
  Life
Dear Prudence
Sept. 22 2014 3:33 PM Killing With Kindness My in-laws want to throw me a get-well-from-cancer bash. There’s no way I can go.
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 19 2014 4:58 PM Steubenville Gets the Lifetime Treatment (And a Cheerleader Erupts Into Flames)
  Slate Plus
Slate Plus
Sept. 22 2014 1:52 PM Tell Us What You Think About Slate Plus Help us improve our new membership program.
  Arts
Brow Beat
Sept. 22 2014 9:17 PM Trent Reznor’s Gone Girl Soundtrack Sounds Like an Eerie, Innovative Success
  Technology
Future Tense
Sept. 22 2014 6:27 PM Should We All Be Learning How to Type in Virtual Reality?
  Health & Science
Bad Astronomy
Sept. 22 2014 11:23 AM Two Impacts, One Landslide … on Mercury
  Sports
Sports Nut
Sept. 18 2014 11:42 AM Grandmaster Clash One of the most amazing feats in chess history just happened, and no one noticed.