The Obama Effect on Gay Marriage: Minimal!

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
May 17 2012 3:47 PM

The Obama Effect on Gay Marriage: Minimal!

North Carolina's Public Policy Polling returns from the field, with the first local black opinion of gay marriage since President Obama came out in favor of it. Before:

Opposed - 63%
Support - 20%

After:

Opposed - 59%
Support - 27%

The pollsters see 11-point movement. True. The numbers moved. But they didn't move to the degree that could have affected this month's Amendment One vote. Instead of passing with 61 percent, perhaps the gay marriage ban could have passed with 59 percent.

I point this out as I point you over to my new piece about Maryland's campaign to repeal the new gay marriage law. If it works, more than one thousand groups, composed of black churches, existing right-wing family groups, and even Muslim organizations, will get a repeal vote on the ballot. We've seen one national poll suggesting a black chill-out over gay marriage, but we need more data. It's too bad, for example, that PPP didn't add an Obama approval question to this survey -- is the average black voter still separating his adoration of Obama with his opposition to what Obama believes?

David Weigel is a Slate political reporter. You can reach him at daveweigel@gmail.com, or tweet at him @daveweigel.