The Howey/DePauw poll of Indiana’s U.S. Senate race is the first locally-based study to give us a trendline. Its first poll on the race revealed that Lugar was polling lower than an incumbent should in a primary. The new poll has Lugar straight-up losing to State Treasurer Richard Mourdock.
The trend:
Mourdock - 48 (+13)
Lugar - 38 (-4)
What on earth is happening? Mourdock is in the challenger’s sweet spot – running his own positive ads while third party groups beat Lugar’s brains out.
And:
Mourdock didn’t start getting traction against Lugar until he smothered him in questions about his residency. Humiliatingly, Lugar had to prove to a series of annoying elections officials and even more annoying reporters that he had a legitimate voting address in the state. It was an old-fashioned brute politics fight that enabled the Tea Party issue fight that the third party groups wanted.
