The best way to understand Pew’s poll on the presidential race is to compare it to previous numbers for Obama in 2008 and his Democrats in 2010. In quick matter-of-fact form:
White voters
Pew 2012: Obama 39%, Romney 54%
Exit poll 2010: Dems 37%, GOP 60%
Exit poll 2008: Obama 43%, McCain 45%
Independents
Pew 2012: Obama 42%, Romney 48%
Exit poll 2010: Dems 37%, GOP 56%
Exit poll 2008: Obama 52%, McCain 44%
Voters aged 65 and older
Pew 2012: Obama 44%, Romney 50%
Exit poll 2010: Dems 38%, GOP 59%
Exit poll 2008: Obama 45%, McCain 53%
For now, Obama’s in a sort of Goldilocks holding pattern. He does much worse than this, and he’s losing.