Weigel

The best way to understand Pew's poll on the presidential race is to compare it to previous numbers for Obama in 2008 and his Democrats in 2010. In quick matter-of-fact form:

White voters
Pew 2012: Obama 39%, Romney 54%
Exit poll 2010: Dems 37%, GOP 60%
Exit poll 2008: Obama 43%, McCain 45%

Independents
Pew 2012: Obama 42%, Romney 48%
Exit poll 2010: Dems 37%, GOP 56%
Exit poll 2008: Obama 52%, McCain 44%

Voters aged 65 and older
Pew 2012: Obama 44%, Romney 50%
Exit poll 2010: Dems 38%, GOP 59%
Exit poll 2008: Obama 45%, McCain 53%

For now, Obama's in a sort of Goldilocks holding pattern. He does much worse than this, and he's losing.