Weigel

The topline number in this new poll is good for Ron Paul. But look at what happened after the Iowa caucuses.

Conventional wisdom: Affirmed! Santorum has been given the chance to coalesce the anti-Romney vote. At tomorrow night's debate, he's pretty clearly got the chance to convince a bloc of undecided voters that they won't be wasting ballots if they dump the other non-Romneys and go his way. His two problems: 1) The Paul vote in the high teens has proven pretty resiliant. 2) There's not much non-Romney conservative support to go after. Bachmann's out, and Perry -- who at this point is barely hitting the qualifications for debate inclusion -- is at 1 percent.