Weigel

CNN sets the new conventional wisdom for everyone. Sorry, Public Policy Polling. You got awful close.

In Iowa, both Romney and Paul are each up five points among likely caucus goers from a CNN/Time/ORC poll conducted at the start of December. The new survey indicates that Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, is at 16% support, up 11 points from the beginning of the month, with Gingrich at 14%, down from 33% in the previous poll.

What's happening to Newt? Let's go to the graph.

Look at the support for Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich -- rolling, bumping curves, all of which peaked before the candidates Icarus'd down to the mean.