Betting on a Paul Win in Iowa

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
Dec. 19 2011 3:52 PM

Betting on a Paul Win in Iowa

The gamble-happy conventional wisdom elves of Intrade are now betting that Ron Paul will win in Iowa.

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Now, the wisdom of the InTrader is often overstated. A week ago, these people were saying Newt Gingrich would win. A week ago, he might have -- this is the "feel" of the moment we're capturing, not some glimpse of what's to come. But if we're heading into a Ron Paul moment, it will be the first time an "anti-Romney" rises with no worries from the Romney campaign. When they were shining their brightest, Perry and Gingrich both looked like potential Romney-killers. Paul, in the long run, does not. So who's going to try and bring him down?

David Weigel is a Slate political reporter. You can reach him at daveweigel@gmail.com, or tweet at him @daveweigel.