Poll: Cain Leads in Iowa

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
Oct. 20 2011 2:44 PM

Poll: Cain Leads in Iowa

LAS VEGAS -- We desperately need a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, but in the meantime, Rasmussen can tide us over. Its new Iowa survey, with trendlines:

Herman Cain - 28% (+24)
Mitt Romney - 21% (+4)
Ron Paul - 10% (-4)
Newt Gingrich - 9% (+7)
Michele Bachmann - 8% (-10)
Rick Perry - 7% (-22)
Rick Santorum - 4% (+0)
Jon Huntsman - 2% (-1)


Yes: Cain's numbers represent a 700% increase in support. This is the third Iowa poll in October in which Cain holds the lead.

B-b-b-but Cain can't possibly survive, right? (Over coffee just now, a Nevada reporter asked me the question that everyone asks about Cain: "When does the bottom fall out?") Cain has no real organization in Iowa! It's a true statement that leaves out something important -- compared to 2007, no one has a great organization in Iowa. Perry has 10 staffers, for all that's getting him. Romney has five. Tim Pawlenty had the biggest Iowa staff of any candidate, even renting out Mitt Romney's old campaign office. We know how that ended. Newt Gingrich lost his entire Iowa staff in one Week of the Long Knives, and he's improved in the polling since then. Why? Same reason that Cain's been improving. He's on TV saying the right things. And he's just announced a new hire, former Iowa GOP chairman Steve Grubbs, so he's not phoning it in.

Cain's problems might have less to do with staff and more to do with schedule. He's not blitzing Iowa to press his advantage. He's not there to explain -- oh, let's pick an example out of the ether -- his abortion stance. That's correctable.

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics



The Democrats’ War at Home

How can the president’s party defend itself from the president’s foreign policy blunders?

Congress’ Public Shaming of the Secret Service Was Political Grandstanding at Its Best

Michigan’s Tradition of Football “Toughness” Needs to Go—Starting With Coach Hoke

A Plentiful, Renewable Resource That America Keeps Overlooking

Animal manure.

Windows 8 Was So Bad That Microsoft Will Skip Straight to Windows 10


Cringing. Ducking. Mumbling.

How GOP candidates react whenever someone brings up reproductive rights or gay marriage.

Building a Better Workplace

You Deserve a Pre-cation

The smartest job perk you’ve never heard of.

Hasbro Is Cracking Down on Scrabble Players Who Turn Its Official Word List Into Popular Apps

Florida State’s New President Is Underqualified and Mistrusted. He Just Might Save the University.

  News & Politics
Sept. 30 2014 9:33 PM Political Theater With a Purpose Darrell Issa’s public shaming of the head of the Secret Service was congressional grandstanding at its best.
Sept. 30 2014 7:02 PM At Long Last, eBay Sets PayPal Free
Sept. 30 2014 7:35 PM Who Owns Scrabble’s Word List? Hasbro says the list of playable words belongs to the company. Players beg to differ.
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 30 2014 12:34 PM Parents, Get Your Teenage Daughters the IUD
  Slate Plus
Behind the Scenes
Sept. 30 2014 3:21 PM Meet Jordan Weissmann Five questions with Slate’s senior business and economics correspondent.
Brow Beat
Sept. 30 2014 8:54 PM Bette Davis Talks Gender Roles in a Delightful, Animated Interview From 1963
Future Tense
Sept. 30 2014 7:00 PM There’s Going to Be a Live-Action Tetris Movie for Some Reason
  Health & Science
Medical Examiner
Sept. 30 2014 11:51 PM Should You Freeze Your Eggs? An egg freezing party is not a great place to find answers to this or other questions.
Sports Nut
Sept. 30 2014 5:54 PM Goodbye, Tough Guy It’s time for Michigan to fire its toughness-obsessed coach, Brady Hoke.