Posted Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2011, at 2:36 PM
Rick Perry's entrance into the presidential race has done two things to Michele Bachmann. One: It has prevented her from getting much liftoff outside of Iowa after her narrow win in Ames. Two: It might be closing off her path to an upset win outside of Iowa and Minnesota, both caucus states. The new Magellan poll of New Hampshire puts Bachmann in fourth place, behind both Perry and Ron Paul.
Romney - 36%
Perry - 18%
Paul - 14%
Bachmann - 10%
Cain - 3%
Huntsman - 3%
Gingrich - 2%
Santorum - 1%
Paul's polling at about twice what he scored in New Hampshire last time. With Gary Johnson getting no traction, and with Democrats having no real cause to vote in their primary, that's a lot of libertarian and anti-war voters in play. One in seven voters back him; these are voters that Perry and Bachmann would like if they're going to surprise in New Hampshire and start playing in the other states.
Meanwhile, how's the Huntsman "I hired John McCain's campaign manager so I can win New Hampshire" strategy going? He's got a 47% "unfavorable" rating and a 20% "favorable" rating. The early non-expert take on Huntsman, that a guy who worked for the Obama administration would be a tough sell to GOP-leaning independents, is looking pretty smart.