Democrats Could Lose Weiner's House Seat

Weigel
Reporting on Politics and Policy.
Aug. 10 2011 10:53 AM

Democrats Could Lose Weiner's House Seat

The Siena Poll, which more or less called the Democratic upset in NY-26, has Republican Bob Turner trailing Democrat David Weprin by only 6 points. Turner got 41 percent of the vote against Anthony Weiner in 2010, and he's polling at 42 percent now. The reasons, from the crosstabs:

- Weprin only gets 61 percent of Democrats; Turner gets 80 percent of Republicans and a small plurality of independents.

Advertisement

- Barack Obama, who carried the district in 2008, has a 52 percent unfavorable rating.

- Seventy-eight percent of voters think the United States is headed "in the wrong direction." Turner is at 91 percent with those voters, which is more evidence that the GOP's problems haven't stopped them being the party to cast an angry vote.

The only national story coming out of the race so far has been Ed Koch's endorsement of Turner, done, he said, to send a message to Democrats about Israel. Weprin, who's Jewish, easily wins with those voters. The bigger stories: It's tough to hold a seat when your party's incumbent resigned after sending pictures of his over-stuffed underwear to women, and Republicans still have a lock on the "to hell with these guys" vote. But that can be mitigated if Weprin runs a predictable campaign and scorches Turner over entitlement spending. Seventy-two percent of voters oppose Social Security and Medicare cuts; Turner is doing quite well with them.

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics

TODAY IN SLATE

Culturebox

The Ebola Story

How our minds build narratives out of disaster.

The Budget Disaster That Completely Sabotaged the WHO’s Response to Ebola

PowerPoint Is the Worst, and Now It’s the Latest Way to Hack Into Your Computer

The Shooting Tragedies That Forged Canada’s Gun Politics

A Highly Unscientific Ranking of Crazy-Old German Beers

Education

Welcome to 13th Grade!

Some high schools are offering a fifth year. That’s a great idea.

Culturebox

The Actual World

“Mount Thoreau” and the naming of things in the wilderness.

Want Kids to Delay Sex? Let Planned Parenthood Teach Them Sex Ed.

Would You Trust Walmart to Provide Your Health Care? (You Should.)

  News & Politics
Politics
Oct. 22 2014 9:42 PM Landslide Landrieu Can the Louisiana Democrat use the powers of incumbency to save herself one more time?
  Business
Continuously Operating
Oct. 22 2014 2:38 PM Crack Open an Old One A highly unscientific evaluation of Germany’s oldest breweries.
  Life
Gentleman Scholar
Oct. 22 2014 5:54 PM May I Offer to Sharpen My Friends’ Knives? Or would that be rude?
  Double X
The XX Factor
Oct. 22 2014 4:27 PM Three Ways Your Text Messages Change After You Get Married
  Slate Plus
Tv Club
Oct. 22 2014 5:27 PM The Slate Walking Dead Podcast A spoiler-filled discussion of Episodes 1 and 2.
  Arts
Culturebox
Oct. 22 2014 11:54 PM The Actual World “Mount Thoreau” and the naming of things in the wilderness.
  Technology
Future Tense
Oct. 22 2014 5:33 PM One More Reason Not to Use PowerPoint: It’s The Gateway for a Serious Windows Vulnerability
  Health & Science
Wild Things
Oct. 22 2014 2:42 PM Orcas, Via Drone, for the First Time Ever
  Sports
Sports Nut
Oct. 20 2014 5:09 PM Keepaway, on Three. Ready—Break! On his record-breaking touchdown pass, Peyton Manning couldn’t even leave the celebration to chance.