Feel the Pawlentymentum

Weigel
Reporting on Politics and Policy.
July 19 2011 6:38 PM

Feel the Pawlentymentum

NBC/WSJ release a new national poll of the GOP primary, one with Rick Perry but without Sarah Palin in the mix. The results, with trends from June:

Mitt Romney - 30% (+0)
Michele Bachmann - 16% (+13)
Rick Perry - 11% (+3)
Ron Paul - 9% (+2)
Newt Gingrich - 8% (+1)
Herman Cain - 5% (-7)
Rick Santorum - 3% (-1)
Tim Pawlenty - 2% (-2)
Jon Huntsman - 2% (+1)
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Cain's surge has disappeared, which we can likely blame on Bachmann. But Pawlenty might come off worst. He fell below the margin of error, and that was after he fell from 6% to 4% from April to June. Here's when you dismiss national polling -- hey, there's no way the running-on-fumes Gingrich campaign is in competition with Pawlenty. He's organizing in the early states, and Gingrich's staff is leaving him. But in order for Pawlenty to surge again, he needs... what? A Bachmann implosion? Possible. A Perry implosion? Okay, we're pushing it.

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics