Pawlenty in Iowa: Not Doomed!

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
June 27 2011 8:15 AM

Pawlenty in Iowa: Not Doomed!

I'm with Nate Silver on the Des Moines Register 's Iowa poll . Yes, it's good for Michele Bachmann that she begins her launch tour in a tie with Mitt Romney. It's not necessarily bad that Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota candidate whose image and network and strategists and record make him the "serious" anti-Romney, is only at 6 percent at this stage.

Consider Jonathan Bernstein’s reminder about the first Iowa Poll in the last election cycle, which was published in May, 2007. In that survey, Mitt Romney — who eventually finished second in Iowa — had 30 percent of the vote. In second and third place were John McCain (with 18 percent) and Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), who flopped there. The winner of the caucuses, Mike Huckabee, had 4 percent of the vote at this point in time — behind the likes of Tommy Thompson and Sam Brownback.


Sure. I will briefly state the difference -- McCain and Giuliani were media favorites with limited appeal to social conservatives, whereas as this weekend's Flakegate reminded us that the media isn't schlepping Bachmann. But generally speaking, it's June and you don't want your dark horse candidate to be surging in a key state yet. The internals:

People don’t dislike him, despite perceptions of a milquetoast performance in the New Hampshire debate. Just 13 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. And while 6 percent say Pawlenty is their top choice, which is in line with national poll numbers, 12 percent name him their backup pick.

Jon Huntsman's unfavorables are six points higher than Pawlenty's! (Some of this has to be linked to Huntsman's showy diss of the caucuses, because the rubes there won't like his no-subsidies stances.) Pawlenty is no one's least favorite candidate, and at some point the gyre's going to spin again and he'll be able to turn in a Surprisingly Good performance at a cattle call or debate.

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics



Talking White

Black people’s disdain for “proper English” and academic achievement is a myth.

Hong Kong’s Protesters Are Ridiculously Polite. That’s What Scares Beijing So Much.

The One Fact About Ebola That Should Calm You: It Spreads Slowly

Operation Backbone

How White Boy Rick, a legendary Detroit cocaine dealer, helped the FBI uncover brazen police corruption.

A Jaw-Dropping Political Ad Aimed at Young Women, Apparently

The XX Factor
Oct. 1 2014 4:05 PM Today in GOP Outreach to Women: You Broads Like Wedding Dresses, Right?

How Even an Old Hipster Can Age Gracefully

On their new albums, Leonard Cohen, Robert Plant, and Loudon Wainwright III show three ways.

How Tattoo Parlors Became the Barber Shops of Hipster Neighborhoods

This Gargantuan Wind Farm in Wyoming Would Be the Hoover Dam of the 21st Century

Oct. 1 2014 8:34 AM This Gargantuan Wind Farm in Wyoming Would Be the Hoover Dam of the 21st Century To undertake a massively ambitious energy project, you don’t need the government anymore.
  News & Politics
Oct. 1 2014 7:26 PM Talking White Black people’s disdain for “proper English” and academic achievement is a myth.
Buy a Small Business
Oct. 1 2014 11:48 PM Inking the Deal Why tattoo parlors are a great small-business bet.
Oct. 1 2014 6:02 PM Facebook Relaxes Its “Real Name” Policy; Drag Queens Celebrate
  Double X
The XX Factor
Oct. 1 2014 5:11 PM Celebrity Feminist Identification Has Reached Peak Meaninglessness
  Slate Plus
Behind the Scenes
Oct. 1 2014 3:24 PM Revelry (and Business) at Mohonk Photos and highlights from Slate’s annual retreat.
Brow Beat
Oct. 1 2014 9:39 PM Tom Cruise Dies Over and Over Again in This Edge of Tomorrow Supercut
Future Tense
Oct. 1 2014 6:59 PM EU’s Next Digital Commissioner Thinks Keeping Nude Celeb Photos in the Cloud Is “Stupid”
  Health & Science
Oct. 1 2014 4:03 PM Does the Earth Really Have a “Hum”? Yes, but probably not the one you’re thinking.
Sports Nut
Oct. 1 2014 5:19 PM Bunt-a-Palooza! How bad was the Kansas City Royals’ bunt-all-the-time strategy in the American League wild-card game?