Ryan Avent flags that claim from the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis, which put together the first number-crunch of Paul Ryan’s budget. (The CDA study is the second appendix in the budget.)
From the study, here’s how Heritage sees the employment rate moving if the Ryan budget passes or if it doesn’t pass.
GOP Budget No GOP Budget
2012 6.4 8.4
2013 5.5 7.6
2014 4.8 6.8
2015 4.0 5.9
2016 3.5 5.3
2017 3.4 5.3
2018 3.3 5.2
2019 3.1 5.2
2020 2.9 5.2
2021 2.8 5.2
So Heritage sees unemployment falling, by 2018, to the lowest level since the roaring 20s – and then going lower! Even the pessimistic, no-GOP-budget plan has unemployment falling to basically what it was in the 2000s by mid-decade, when the numbers were inflated by the housing bubble.
