Nowhere for Romney to Go But Down

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
Jan. 7 2011 10:50 AM

Nowhere for Romney to Go But Down

Congratulations, Mitt Romney! You have won the Hillary Clinton seat for the 2012 primaries. You're the long-distance frontrunner who is now expected to win New Hampshire . The Magellan poll of "likely 1,451 Republican primary voters," about 2/3 GOP registered and 1/3 independent:

Mitt Romney - 39 percent
Sarah Palin - 16 percent
Mike Huckabee - 10 percent
Newt Gingrich - 8 percent
Ron Paul - 7 percent
Tim Pawlenty - 4 percent 
another candidate - 4 percent
Rick Santorum - 3 percent
Haley Barbour - 1 percent

Advertisement

Romney has to be considered the frontrunner, even though he's polling only 7 points higher than his vote from the 2008 primary. (Huckabee and Paul poll one point lower than their 2008 results.) He has the highest favorable ratings, 73 percent to 16 percent unfavorable. That's up from the 62 percent of Republican primary voters who had a favorable opinion of Romney on primary day 2008. (John McCain, the winner, had a 75 percent favorable rating from primary voters.) The inevitable conclusion -- a year of fellow Republicans and the Union Leader beating the hell out of Romney, especially over health care reform, can hurt him. Only Haley Barbour starts with a negative favorable rating, so there's a ton of room for Romney rivals to grow. And because he's the only 2012 candidate with any geographic claim to New Hampshire, anything less than a monster win makes him look a lot like Muskie.

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics

TODAY IN SLATE

Politics

The Democrats’ War at Home

How can the president’s party defend itself from the president’s foreign policy blunders?

Congress’ Public Shaming of the Secret Service Was Political Grandstanding at Its Best

Michigan’s Tradition of Football “Toughness” Needs to Go—Starting With Coach Hoke

A Plentiful, Renewable Resource That America Keeps Overlooking

Animal manure.

Windows 8 Was So Bad That Microsoft Will Skip Straight to Windows 10

Politics

Cringing. Ducking. Mumbling.

How GOP candidates react whenever someone brings up reproductive rights or gay marriage.

Building a Better Workplace

You Deserve a Pre-cation

The smartest job perk you’ve never heard of.

Hasbro Is Cracking Down on Scrabble Players Who Turn Its Official Word List Into Popular Apps

Florida State’s New President Is Underqualified and Mistrusted. He Just Might Save the University.

  News & Politics
Politics
Sept. 30 2014 9:33 PM Political Theater With a Purpose Darrell Issa’s public shaming of the head of the Secret Service was congressional grandstanding at its best.
  Business
Moneybox
Sept. 30 2014 7:02 PM At Long Last, eBay Sets PayPal Free
  Life
Gaming
Sept. 30 2014 7:35 PM Who Owns Scrabble’s Word List? Hasbro says the list of playable words belongs to the company. Players beg to differ.
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 30 2014 12:34 PM Parents, Get Your Teenage Daughters the IUD
  Slate Plus
Behind the Scenes
Sept. 30 2014 3:21 PM Meet Jordan Weissmann Five questions with Slate’s senior business and economics correspondent.
  Arts
Brow Beat
Sept. 30 2014 8:54 PM Bette Davis Talks Gender Roles in a Delightful, Animated Interview From 1963
  Technology
Future Tense
Sept. 30 2014 7:00 PM There’s Going to Be a Live-Action Tetris Movie for Some Reason
  Health & Science
Medical Examiner
Sept. 30 2014 11:51 PM Should You Freeze Your Eggs? An egg freezing party is not a great place to find answers to this or other questions.
  Sports
Sports Nut
Sept. 30 2014 5:54 PM Goodbye, Tough Guy It’s time for Michigan to fire its toughness-obsessed coach, Brady Hoke.