I was just talking to a Tea Party activist who speculated that a vote to repeal or defund health care reform could succeed because conservative Democrats might join the majority against it and override a veto. There is a problem with this: Most of the Democrats who voted against the final health care bill in the House are not going to be in the next Congress. Thirty-four Democrats voted against it , of whom the only survivors were Rep. Jason Altmire (Pa.), Rep. John Barrow (Ga.), Rep. Dan Boren (Okla.), Rep. Ben Chandler (Ky.), Rep. Tim Holden (Pa.), Rep. Larry Kissell (N.C.), Rep. Dan Lipinski (Ill.), Rep. Stephen Lynch (Mass.), Rep. Jim Matheson (Utah), Rep. Mike McIntyre (N.C.), Rep. Collin Peterson (Minn.) . Rep. Mike Ross (Ark.), and Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.).
Obviously, new Republican votes on health care are going to put some of these candidates on the line again. But some a few, like Lipinski and Lynch, aren't really in electoral danger. So a Republican repeal bill might get only 11 Democratic votes in the House, when a veto override needs 291 votes. In short, a veto override ain't happening.