How to Know Early if the Democrats Are Screwed

Weigel
Reporting on Politics and Policy.
Nov. 2 2010 12:01 PM

How to Know Early if the Democrats Are Screwed

There are at least have a dozen excellent guides to election night out there, with information on how quickly you will know if the Republicans are outperforming the polls, if Democrats or hanging on, or if -- no fun -- everything is going exactly as Nate Silver predicted.

Here's what I'm watching.

Advertisement

7 p.m. ET This is when all of the polls are closed in Kentucky and Indiana. Just as we knew that Obama was going to win when the networks couldn't call Indiana -- in an instant it was clear the "Bradley effect" was a myth -- and just as we knew that the Democrats were winning the House when Democrat John Yarmuth started winning in Kentucky's 3rd district, we will know a lot after 7 this year. If Yarmuth is struggling, against a Tea Party candidate who beat the NRCC's choice, Democrats are basically doomed -- they are losing in an urbanized district which has been steadily trending toward them. It matters a bit less if Ben Chandler is struggling in the 6th district, as Democrats are going to struggle in many such mostly rural districts. Democrats can still hold the House if they lose the 8th district of Indiana being vacated by Brad Ellsworth. But in the 2nd district, Joe Donnelly has run one of the fiercest "I'm not like Pelosi" campaigns of the cycle, and his opponent Jackie Walorski only caught fire after Mike Huckabee and other national Republicans started to see if they could play here.

David Weigel is a reporter for Bloomberg Politics

TODAY IN SLATE

The World

How Canada’s Shooting Tragedies Have Shaped Its Gun Control Politics

Where Ebola Lives Between Outbreaks

Gunman Killed Inside Canadian Parliament; Soldier Shot at National Monument Dies

Sleater-Kinney Was Once America’s Best Rock Band

Can it be again?

Paul Farmer: Up to 90 Percent of Ebola Patients Should Survive

Is he right?

Science

“I’m Not a Scientist” Is No Excuse

Politicians brag about their ignorance while making ignorant decisions.

Technology

Driving in Circles

The autonomous Google car may never actually happen.

In Praise of 13th Grade: Why a Fifth Year of High School Is a Great Idea 

PowerPoint Is the Worst, and Now It’s the Latest Way to Hack Into Your Computer

  News & Politics
Politics
Oct. 22 2014 9:42 PM Landslide Landrieu Can the Louisiana Democrat use the powers of incumbency to save herself one more time?
  Business
Continuously Operating
Oct. 22 2014 2:38 PM Crack Open an Old One A highly unscientific evaluation of Germany’s oldest breweries.
  Life
Gentleman Scholar
Oct. 22 2014 5:54 PM May I Offer to Sharpen My Friends’ Knives? Or would that be rude?
  Double X
The XX Factor
Oct. 22 2014 4:27 PM Three Ways Your Text Messages Change After You Get Married
  Slate Plus
Tv Club
Oct. 22 2014 5:27 PM The Slate Walking Dead Podcast A spoiler-filled discussion of Episodes 1 and 2.
  Arts
Brow Beat
Oct. 22 2014 10:39 PM Avengers: Age of Ultron Looks Like a Fun, Sprawling, and Extremely Satisfying Sequel
  Technology
Future Tense
Oct. 22 2014 5:33 PM One More Reason Not to Use PowerPoint: It’s The Gateway for a Serious Windows Vulnerability
  Health & Science
Wild Things
Oct. 22 2014 2:42 PM Orcas, Via Drone, for the First Time Ever
  Sports
Sports Nut
Oct. 20 2014 5:09 PM Keepaway, on Three. Ready—Break! On his record-breaking touchdown pass, Peyton Manning couldn’t even leave the celebration to chance.