Mostly Doomed or Totally Doomed?

Reporting on Politics and Policy.
Nov. 1 2010 10:17 AM

Mostly Doomed or Totally Doomed?

It's Gallup's news cycle today -- there is no way Democrats are breaking through the noise given off by this poll.

The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

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Well, then, game over. Even if you buy the registered voter numbers -- if you think Democratic GOTV can drag enough voters out of their homes tomorrow to close some of this gap -- look at the trendlines . Democrats are in worse shape now than they were when they had bruising losses last year.

 

David Weigel is a Slate political reporter. 

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