It’s Gallup’s news cycle today – there is no way Democrats are breaking through the noise given off by this poll.
The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot – depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
Well, then, game over. Even if you buy the registered voter numbers – if you think Democratic GOTV can drag enough voters out of their homes tomorrow to close some of this gap – look at the
trendlines
. Democrats are in worse shape now than they were when they had bruising losses last year.
