"Hillary Deathwatch" Odds: 9.0 Percent

A campaign blog.
April 3 2008 2:29 PM

"Hillary Deathwatch" Odds: 9.0 Percent

The mortar in Clinton machine's bulwark, once thought to beindestructible, continues to crumble as a once-faithful supporter hintsthat he might defect. Plus, more good fundraising news for the Obamacamp brings Clinton to an even 9.0 percent chance of survival.

On the face of it, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's statement this morning on CNBC that he reserves the right to defect if Clinton loses the popular votesounds more inside baseball than headline news. But consider thesefactors: Corzine endorsed Clinton more than a year ago as part of Clinton's initial sweep ofsuperdelegates. (Yesterday was the anniversary of that announcement.) Adefection by Corzine would mean the foundation is crumbling. Also,Clinton won the New Jersey primary by 11 points on Feb. 5. Jersey is in her backyard, and the fact thatthe governor would consider siding with the popular vote over theoverwhelming opinion of his constituents won't go overlooked by othersuperdelegates from states she won. If Richardson is "Judas," whatwould that make Corzine?

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Chris Wilson is a Slate contributor.