Exit Polls: Mississippi

Exit Polls: Mississippi

Exit Polls: Mississippi

A campaign blog.
March 11 2008 8:36 PM

Exit Polls: Mississippi

It’s 8 p.m. and CNN can’t project a winner for Mississippi. Huh. ( Update 8:43 p.m. : OK, now it's Obama.) They say exit polls suggest he "seems to be" ahead, but perhaps it’s not as decisive as expected. (Fox News is calling it for Obama.) Here are some other exit poll juicy bits (Obligatory disclaimer: Exit polls are unreliable!):

It’s about race, only more so than usual. Both candidates win their own, and overwhelmingly. Obama wins 91 percent of African-Americans—the highest yet—whereas Clinton won 72 percent of whites. Given that African-Americans make up 48 percent of Democratic voters, he almost could have won the election without the help of whites.

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It’s not about gender. Women and men split almost evenly between the two candidates, with Clinton winning around 41 percent and Obama winning around 49 percent, according to MSNBC . It’s similar to what happened in South Carolina, where race trumped gender in determining how people voted.

Ads mattered. People who considered political ads to be important swung toward Obama, whereas those who didn’t care about them went for Hillary. This could reflect the fact that Obama outspent Clinton in the state by a few million. Or it could also reflect residual backlash to Clinton’s "3 a.m." ad, widely considered to have helped her in Ohio.

Most people made up their minds early. But those who didn’t favored Clinton. Only 19 percent of voters said they had made up their minds in the last week. Of that group, 53 percent voted for Clinton. Those who decided before the last week favored Obama, with 62 percent.

The dream ticket. More than half of voters think each candidate should pick the other as their vice president.

Hating on McCain. For all the talk of Obama relying on independents and Republicans, Obama’s supporters were far less likely to have high opinions of John McCain. More than half of Clinton voters said they had a favorable opinion of McCain; only about a quarter of Obama voters felt that way.