By Christopher Beam and Chadwick Matlin
Feb. 5, 2008, aka Super Tuesday, will be utter electoral chaos. On the Democratic side, 22 states hold their primaries, awarding a total of 1,681 pledged delegates, or 52 percent of all those awarded. (“Pledged” delegates don’t include the 796 “superdelegates”—members of Congress and other party leaders—who attend the national convention.) Republicans have 975 pledged delegates at stake—41 percent of the total number—in 21 states. So, with a little more than a week to go before the polls open, the candidates will have to allocate their resources carefully. Here’s a quick primer on what obstacles each candidate faces and how they should spend their time.
Note: Delegate counts below include both pledged delegates and superdelegates.
The Democrats
Unlike the Republicans, the Democratic National Committee awards all delegates on a proportional basis. That means Hillary and Obama are likely to pick up delegates in each of the 22 states. Edwards, meanwhile, is a wild card. He’ll only receive delegates in a state if he clears the 15 percent viability threshold. If that happens, look for the tight race between Hillary and Obama to get even tighter, since they’ll have trouble winning by huge margins. In which case, the contest is likely to extend well beyond Feb. 5.
Hillary Clinton: The proportional-delegate system doesn’t help the national front-runner because she can’t rack up a commanding delegate lead. So, for Clinton, Feb. 5 is about maximizing her advantage in states that already favor her. She owns the tristate delegate behemoth of New York , New Jersey , and Connecticut (468 delegates total). Plus, Arkansas (47) still remembers her as their First Lady before she became the country’s. She polls favorably—and Obama polls poorly—among Latinos, which means that Arizona and New Mexico (105 delegates total) are friendly states thanks to their 25 percent-plus Hispanic population, but Obama won’t cede those votes. The Latino-factor also helps her in California (441) where she already polls well , but she’ll need to spend considerable time there to fight back against Obama’s made-for-Hollywood life story.
States to tackle:
Arizona, California, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, Massachusetts
States to ignore:
Arkansas, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York
Barack Obama:
Nationwide, Obama hopes to combat Hillary’s name-recognition with his own star power. Besides blitzing the national media, he’ll probably start with his home base,
Illinois
(185 delegates), and focus on states with caucuses like
Kansas
(41) and
Minnesota
(88), where he might repeat his Iowa victory, and open primaries in which Independents and Republicans can vote as well. Obama should also tackle purple states in which Democrats normally fare poorly, such as
Colorado
(71) and
Missouri
(88), to draw out Hillary-hating indies. Independents can also vote in the day’s biggest prize,
California
(441), although Hillary has an edge in Golden State polls. The other grand prize,
New York
(281), is also Clinton country, but Obama will likely try to foment an uprising in the Big Apple—a victory there would make for giddy headlines—and leave the boonies to Hillary.
States to tackle:
Illinois, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, California, New York
States to ignore:
Arkansas,
Connecticut, Oklahoma, Delaware
States to tackle:
Alabama
, California, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
States to ignore:
Arkansas
, Colorado, Illinois, New York, New Jersey
The Republicans
For the GOP, Tsunami Tuesday’s influence depends on how many people are still in the race. If Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee stick around after Florida, both could run regional campaigns in the Northeast and South, respectively, that could keep the race muddled. But if it becomes a two-way race, the Republicans’ winner-take-all delegate rules mean that John McCain or Mitt Romney could hold a commanding, but not invincible, lead moving forward.
States to tackle:
Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, New York
States to ignore:
Arizona, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee
John McCain:
McCain’s success on Feb. 5 relies heavily on his ability to get Republicans to trust him—which is what went wrong against George Bush in 2000. Polls show him competing with Giuliani in
New York
,
Connecticut
, and
New Jersey
(183 delegates total), and Giuliani’s likely third-place finish in Florida on Tuesday should allow McCain to command the national security vote nationwide, including the Northeast. All three of those states have closed primaries, which means McCain won’t be allowed to rely on his usual trump card—Independents. There aren’t many open primary states, and many are down South (
Alabama
,
Georgia
, and
Tennessee
—
175 delegates total), which means McCain may have to tussle with a regional-minded Huckabee. Out West, McCain’s home state of
Arizona
(53) will back him, but he’ll have to contest Romney’s Reagan rhetoric in
California
(173). If he really wants to stick it to Romney, he can campaign in
Massachusetts
(43), where a Romney defeat would be embarrassing, if not devastating.
States to tackle:
California
, Connecticut, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York
States to ignore
: Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Utah
States to tackle:
California, Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee
States to ignore:
Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, New York, Utah
States to tackle:
Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia
States to ignore:
Arkansas, California, Connecticut, New York
