There Is the Bounce

A campaign blog.
Jan. 7 2008 12:27 AM

There Is the Bounce

On Saturday, the Clinton campaign released a statement—"WHERE IS THE BOUNCE?"—asking why Obama’s victory in Iowa hadn’t given him a bump in the New Hampshire polls.

They sent it about 24 hours too early. Last we heard, Obama was "narrowing the gap" between him and Hillary. Now it looks like the gap has flipped. Drudge puts it most pithily:

CNNUSATODAYGALLUP : Obama 41% Clinton: 28% ... [+/- 4 % margin]
RASMUSSEN : Obama 39% Clinton 27% ... [+/- 3 % margin]
CNNWMUR : Obama 39% Clinton 29% ... [+/- 5% margin]

These polls were all taken in the days following the Iowa caucus results. All of them show Obama leading at or beyond the margin of error. This, despite Hillary entering " contrast mode ."

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She’s now pitching last night’s debate as a battle of words versus actions from which she emerged victorious. That this argument will be her last before the primaries shows just how short five days really is. If she had another week, things would be different—Obama’s glow would fade a little, and Hillary’s charges about his vote on the Patriot Act and Iraq war funding would have more time to sink in. But as it is, her performance in New Hampshire—and, it appears, her campaign—rides on this argument.

Christopher Beam is a writer living in Beijing.

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