If This Is Stability in Syria, What Does Chaos Look Like?

How It Works
Sept. 18 2013 5:28 PM

We Sure Wouldn’t Want “Chaos” in Syria, Would We?

Rebel fighters shoot over a barricade towards regime positions in the Old City's front line in Aleppo on September 18, 2013.

Photo by JM LOPEZ/AFP/Getty Images

NPR’s Greg Myre has an interesting piece up noting that there now appears to be a contradiction between two stated U.S. policy goals in Syria: President Obama’s previous calls for Bashar al-Assad to step down, and the hope that his government will comply with international efforts to remove his chemical weapons.

Joshua Keating Joshua Keating

Joshua Keating is a staff writer at Slate focusing on international affairs and writes the World blog. 

This line, however, jumped out at me:


As long as Assad still has stocks of chemical weapons, his ouster could create chaos in Syria that would further complicate efforts to secure and destroy the chemical arsenal.

Today brings news that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, an al Qaeda-affiliated group, has overrun a town near the Turkish border after fighting with the western-backed Free Syrian Army. The development highlights the fact that the Syrian war is not a two-actor conflict anymore. As Time’s Aryn Baker put it a few days ago, “For the past several months rebel groups aligned with ISIS in Aleppo province have spent nearly as much energy battling factions serving under the umbrella of the Western-leaning Free Syrian Army (FSA) as they have fighting the [Assad] regime”.

Meanwhile, a new Brookings report out today discusses Syria’s displaced persons. Combining the internally and internationally displaced, roughly six million Syrians have now fled their homes, a floating nation larger than Denmark. The authors note that the 2 million international refugees in particular present “political dilemmas for the host governments, particularly in their relationships with other countries in the region and in addressing the ethnic and sectarian balance in their own countries.”

All this is to say that the ship has kind of sailed on chaos breaking out in Syria.

If the calculation is really that Assad’s presence is necessary for the chemical weapons mission to succeed, this ignores the many opportunities he will have to slow the process down, as well as the fact that even if he cooperates completely, carrying out such an operation will be extremely hazardous and time consuming. Remember that the last time international chemical weapons inspectors were in the country they came under fire by snipers.  

On the other hand, the last two years haven’t exactly been kind to predictions that things can’t get worse in Syria. 


Medical Examiner

Here’s Where We Stand With Ebola

Even experienced international disaster responders are shocked at how bad it’s gotten.

It Is Very, Very Stupid to Compare Hope Solo to Ray Rice

The U.S. Is So, So Far Behind Europe on Clean Energy

Even if You Don’t Like Batman, You Might Like Gotham

Friends Was the Last Purely Pleasurable Sitcom

The Eye

This Whimsical Driverless Car Imagines Transportation in 2059


Meet the New Bosses

How the Republicans would run the Senate.

A Woman Who Escaped the Extreme Babymaking Christian Fundamentalism of Quiverfull

So, Apple Is Not Shuttering Beats, but the Streaming Service Will Probably Be Folded Into iTunes

  News & Politics
Sept. 22 2014 6:30 PM What Does It Mean to Be an American? Ted Cruz and Scott Brown think it’s about ideology. It’s really about culture.
Sept. 22 2014 5:38 PM Apple Won't Shut Down Beats Music After All (But Will Probably Rename It)
Sept. 22 2014 4:45 PM Why Can’t the Census Count Gay Couples Accurately?
  Double X
Sept. 22 2014 4:06 PM No, Women’s Soccer Does Not Have a Domestic Violence Problem Or, why it is very, very stupid to compare Hope Solo to Ray Rice.
  Slate Plus
Slate Plus
Sept. 22 2014 1:52 PM Tell Us What You Think About Slate Plus Help us improve our new membership program.
Brow Beat
Sept. 22 2014 5:45 PM The University of California Corrects “Injustice” by Making Its Rich Chancellors Even Richer
Future Tense
Sept. 22 2014 6:27 PM Should We All Be Learning How to Type in Virtual Reality?
  Health & Science
Medical Examiner
Sept. 22 2014 4:34 PM Here’s Where We Stand With Ebola Even experienced international disaster responders are shocked at how bad it’s gotten.
Sports Nut
Sept. 18 2014 11:42 AM Grandmaster Clash One of the most amazing feats in chess history just happened, and no one noticed.