The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
Suburban voters punished Trump-affiliated candidates in Virginia and elsewhere on Tuesday—and, as my colleague Jim Newell writes, the GOP may be about to compound its losses by promoting a tax bill that angers suburban middle- and upper-middle-class voters even further. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight notes that last night's results are in line with numbers that were already showing Democrats set up for a very strong 2018 showing in coastal states and blue states, particularly in suburban districts and districts with "growing nonwhite populations." On the strategic side of things, the Washington Post finds a Republican Party that's not sure whether it should react to the suburban shellacking by getting closer to or further from Trump, which is a dilemma that's not going to go away in the next 12 months.
So, we're now in a situation where polling guru Nate Silver is describing Democrats as the "favorites" to hold the House after the 2018 election—and Donald Trump is still doing eminently impeachable stuff every day.
Raise the meter!
Today’s meter level is higher than yesterday's.