Trump impeachment chances: Generic ballot edition.

Today’s Impeach-O-Meter: Odds of GOP Losing Congress Hit New High (but Are Still Pretty Low)

Today’s Impeach-O-Meter: Odds of GOP Losing Congress Hit New High (but Are Still Pretty Low)

The Slatest
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Oct. 26 2017 5:06 PM

Today’s Impeach-O-Meter: Odds of GOP Losing Congress Hit New High (but Are Still Pretty Low)

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Future minority leader Paul Ryan? Maybe! (Probably not.) (But who knows?)

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.

Big things are happening on FiveThirtyEight's generic ballot aggregator, which tracks how potential voters are responding to poll questions about whether they'd like to see Democrats or Republicans in charge of Congress:

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The Cook Political Report, meanwhile, recently changed its assessments of 11 congressional districts to indicate more favorable conditions for Democratic candidates. Can you say landslide, baby?

Well, even if you can say it, you shouldn't, at least not yet. Cook still lists 228 House seats as solidly, leaning, or likely Republican—10 more than the number the GOP would need to hold the chamber. One prognosticator at the University of Virginia Center for Politics responded to Micah Cohen's tweet above by noting that there's a consensus among smart forecaster type people that the Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to even be "in the hunt" for a majority. And the election is still 12 months and 11 days away.

So, seriously, don't say landslide yet. Don't say it. Don't do it!

Today's meter level is the same as yesterday’s.

Photo illustration by Natalie Matthews-Ramo. Photos by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Win McNamee/Getty Images, Chris Kleponis-Pool/Getty Images, Drew Angerer/Getty Images, and Peter Parks-Pool/Getty Images.

Photo illustration by Natalie Matthews-Ramo. Photos by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Win McNamee/Getty Images, Chris Kleponis-Pool/Getty Images, Drew Angerer/Getty Images, and Peter Parks-Pool/Getty Images.