The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
Donald Trump held a press conference at the White House on Monday during which he was asked why he hadn’t yet commented publicly on the deaths of four U.S. service members in Niger 10 days ago. His answer was that … Barack Obama? Read for yourself:
I have written [the deceased service members’ families] personal letters. They were sent or are going out over the weekend. I will at some point during the period of time call the parents and the families. Because I have done that traditionally. I felt very, very badly about that. I feel badly. It’s the toughest—the toughest calls that I have to make are the calls where this happens. Soldiers are killed. It’s a very difficult thing. It gets to a point where, you know, you make four or five of them in one day, it’s a very tough day. For me, that’s by far the toughest. The traditional way, if you look at President Obama and other presidents, most of them didn’t make calls. Lot of them didn’t make calls. I like to call when it’s appropriate, when I think I’m able to do it. They have made the ultimate sacrifice. So generally I would say that I like to call. I’m going to be calling them. I want a little time to pass. I’m going to be calling them. I have, since I have been president, I have. But in addition, I actually wrote letters, individually, to the soldiers we’re talking about and they will be going out either today or tomorrow.
The clear implication here is that President Obama never called the families of U.S. service members who were killed in action, a claim which seems implausible and which more than one Obama staffer has immediately said is incorrect. Another reporter followed up on the subject later in Trump’s press conference, whereupon … this:
QUESTION: Earlier you said President Obama never called a family of a fallen soldier?
TRUMP: No, I don’t know if he did. I was told that he didn’t often. Lot of presidents don’t. Excuse me, Peter. I do a combination of both. It’s a very difficult thing to do. But I do a combination of both. President Obama, I think, probably did sometimes and maybe sometimes he didn’t. I don’t know. That’s what I was told. All I can do is ask my generals. Other presidents did not call. They’d write letters and some presidents didn’t do anything, but I like the combination of—I like, when I can, the combination of a call and also a letter.
What we have here is a rare albeit chronologically backward glimpse into the way the president formulates the “facts” that he emits. In the second answer, we see what he knows about the issue: Nothing. (“I don’t know if he did … I was told that he didn’t often … [he] probably did sometimes.”) In the first answer, we see that lack of knowledge applied to a specific situation; Trump needs to make an excuse for something that he’s being criticized for, so “I don’t know” becomes “President Obama … didn’t make calls.”
Fun! Also, bonus points to the Washington Post’s Philip Bump for noticing the secondary incoherence of Trump’s varying statements about his letters to the bereaved families, which he alternatingly claims “were sent,” “are going out over the weekend,” and “will be going out either today or tomorrow.” Schrodinger’s postal service, I guess.
