The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
Ultimately, the main factor in any prospective impeachment of President Donald Trump is not Robert Mueller’s slow and dogged investigation, nor whether or not John Kelly is the actual person running the country, nor what Steve Bannon thinks. In order for Trump to face consequences for his already apparent high crimes, Congress will almost certainly have to act. It seems very clear that no matter what Trump does or might have done, the Congressional Republicans currently in charge have no intention of holding him accountable.
So, when you talk about the odds of Trump’s potential removal from office, one of the main things you’re talking about is the odds of Democrats winning the House of Representatives during the 2018 election. How likely is that?
On Friday, the standard bearing Cook Political Report released its updated ratings for where each House race stands. While Democrats still have an inordinate lift—having to win 24 seats from a heavily gerrymandered national map—Cook reports that lift might be becoming easier. According to David Wasserman’s analysis, ratings have shifted in the direction of Democrats in 11 seats and Republicans in just one. This doesn’t mean Democrats are now more likely than not to gain those ten seats, it just means that the wind in those districts is moving in their favor.
Overall, Cook has 11 currently Democratic-held seats listed as likely Democratic, six such seats as lean Democratic, and three as toss-ups. A full 12 Republican held seats, meanwhile, are listed toss-ups. If Democrats can sweep the toss-ups and Democratic leans and likelies—not a crazy prospect in a midterm with an unpopular president of the other party named Donald Trump—then it would need just 12 more seats. Cook has listed 23 additional Republican-held seats listed as lean Republican and 25 as likely Republican.
Basically, Cook has the GOP defending 60 vulnerable seats and the Democrats defending just 20. Given those numbers and some of Trump’s more unpopular recent moves, a switch in the House is not outside of the question, which would ultimately put impeachment or resignation within the realm of a real possibility. The meter ticks back up to where it started the week.
