Today’s Impeach-O-Meter: 37 Percent Approval Is Not a Good Level of Approval

In the tradition of the Clintonometer and the Trump Apocalypse Watch, the Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.

Sad!

Sad!

FiveThirtyEight weighted-aggregation-model sad!

We can confidently attribute this slide to one of three possibilities:

• Trump’s failures on health care, and the general chaos of his administration, are starting to sink in with voters.
• This is a random little blip and he’ll be back up hovering around 40 percent by next week.
• Something else is happening.

In other words, it’s too early to be sure that this is a meaningful dip in Trump’s popularity. But it’s definitely worth raising an eyebrow about, like, hmmmmmm, what do we have here, am I right?