Today’s Impeach-O-Meter: The Health Care Bill Is Bad

In the tradition of the Clintonometer and the Trump Apocalypse Watch, the Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.

My colleague Jordan Weissmann described one part of the Senate health care bill as “political suicide” shortly before the Congressional Budget Office issued its score on the proposal Monday. The CBO’s analysis—that the bill would cause 15 million people to lose or drop their insurance in 2018, a number that would rise to 22 million by 2026—is not going to help on that front, and moderate Maine Sen. Susan Collins has already announced in pretty strong language that she won’t vote for it as is. Collins, Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (who objects that the bill is too generous) are hard enough “no” votes that it’s looking like GOP leadership’s plan to rush the legislation through before the Fourth of July may not work out.

The Republicans’ plan with health care was seemingly for the Senate to come up with a bill that seemed moderate in comparison to the House’s American Health Care Act—one whose consequences wouldn’t kick in for many years, and which could get rushed through without too much backlash. The CBO’s estimate of major and immediate coverage losses is thus bad news for them, and Donald Trump’s chances of being ultimately forced (by a Democratic Congress) to pay a price for his many crimes thus rises accordingly.