In the tradition of the Clintonometer and the Trump Apocalypse Watch, the Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
It feels crass to make jokes about the chances of the Republican president being impeached on a day when Republican legislators faced a violent assault and were nearly killed by a deranged man who professed to have liberal politics. But, as Rep. Roger Williams said after escaping that shooting spree with his life, “if we don’t play this baseball game, they win.” (A Williams staffer was injured during the assault.)
I don’t want to assess what today’s assault will mean politically for the president, because it just feels too soon and too gross. I will say that, in the long run, I hope and believe that neither side can or will very effectively use a tragedy such as this for partisan gain.
With that said, there were some new polls out today. Democrat Jon Ossoff leads his must-win race against Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th special House election by 3 points, according to a poll released on Wednesday by Trafalgar Group. That’s a good number for Democrats and their hopes of taking back the House in 2018, the only scenario right now that looks like it might lead to impeachment. According to a YouGov poll, meanwhile, 54 percent of voters say Congress should be investigating Trump campaign members’ contacts with Russian government officials before the inauguration to 30 percent who don’t. That’s good news for those who want such an investigation to continue.
Democrats also lead Republicans by 2 points in that poll’s generic Congressional ballot. That number is probably less good for Democrats, who will need to win by a lot more than that to take back the House. Overall, I’m taking the Impeach-O-Meter down two points to 43.