In the tradition of the Clintonometer and the Trump Apocalypse Watch, the Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
So: President Donald Trump’s friend floated the idea that he might terminate the special counsel Robert Mueller, plummeting the nation once and for all into a true constitutional crisis. Republicans gave mealy-mouthed urgings for the president not to do this. And deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein testified that he’d have to be the one to execute the firing and he has no plans to do so. So crisis averted?
No. As Rosenstein acknowledged, Trump can still fire him and anyone else who would refuse an order to get rid of Mueller. So Trump ultimately could still get rid of Mueller if he wanted. The fact that the president seems to want to do this indicates that he thinks Mueller is going to find something (given the wealth of already public evidence of potential obstruction, that seems like a reasonable inference). If the only way to prevent Mueller from finding something is to fire him, then Trump might ultimately consider that the way to go.
Now the question is, how politically disastrous would this be for the president? New York Magazine’s Jonathan Chait made the good point that even something as outrageously antithetical to the rule of law as firing the well regarded and respected across both aisles straight shooting cop, Mueller, would not be enough to cost him the support of his base. “Only failures with tangible effect, like a recession, a failed war, or a bungled disaster response, could drive Trump’s approval rating down into the 20s, which is what it would take for Republicans in Congress to contemplate impeachment,” Chait argued.
Fair enough! But could such a move tank whatever remnants of support Trump has with whatever is left of the moderate wing of the Republican party enough that the party would be swept from control of the House in 2018, enabling Democrats to follow through on impeachment proceedings for any such potential high crimes? A few recent polls maybe offer some guidance. A poll by the Democratic-leaning firm PPP out on Monday has Democrats leading the generic 2018 ballot by a whopping ten points. That’s actually a point lower than the previous PPP poll on the subject, however, and it appears to be an outlier survey. The latest poll in the Georgia 6th race between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel, meanwhile, is a dead heat. It’s become conventional wisdom that Democrats must win this race if they are to show the sort of ability that would be required to win enough seats to take back the House of Representatives next year. A tie ballgame might be a little too close for comfort at this point, with one week to go until Election Day.
Which is all just to say: Who the hell knows! Impeach-O-Meter stays at 45.
Photo illustration by Natalie Matthews-Ramo. Photos by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Win McNamee/Getty Images, Chris Kleponis-Pool/Getty Images, Drew Angerer/Getty Images, and Peter Parks-Pool/Getty Images.
