The Slatest

How Theresa May Screwed Up the Election She Called For

British Prime Minister Theresa May speaks during a Conservative Party general election campaign visit in Norwich, United Kingdom in June 7, 2016.

AFP/Getty Images

It looks like British Prime Minister Theresa May is headed for a victory in Thursday’s elections. The latest polls have her ahead of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn by as much as 12 points. An impressive number, but still smaller than was expected when May shocked the British political class and called for a snap election in April—after repeatedly promising she wasn’t going to do just that.

The election was meant to be an easy way for the Tory leader to consolidate power and give her the upper hand in Brexit negotiations ahead. After three terror attacks and several missteps, the question remains whether the prime minister will avoid embarrassment at the polls. Some surveys have May’s Conservative party losing its majority in parliament after what many are calling the worst campaign by an incumbent prime minister in recent history. Also, considering how wrong polls have been in recent memory—think Brexit—the unexpected could still happen.

Here are the major dynamics of the race going into Election Day.

May’s struggle

May became Prime Minster after David Cameron resigned, and therefore never was subject to a nationwide vote. It turned out that the more British voters heard from her, the less they liked her. May’s penchant to hide from the press and answer questions with the least controversial words led to the rise of the nickname Maybot. She talked up her eagerness to engage with voters directly but every time she tried to look like a normal person that people could relate to, she failed miserably. A poignant Maybot example came just this week, when she was asked by an ITV interviewer what the “naughtiest” thing she ever did was. “I have to confess,” she answered, “when me and my friends, sort of, used to run through the fields of wheat. The farmers weren’t too pleased about that.”

May also faced questions about whether she was “frightened” to debate after she failed to show up for a highly anticipated face-off.

Corbyn’s revival-ish

Corbyn has not found himself suddenly popular. Far from it. He’s still facing lots of internal dissent within the party (they’ve tried to kick him out as leader before). But, while the Conservative Party (and its allied media outlets) worked hard to portray Corbyn as a socialist hippie who could never be trusted to run a country, when voters started paying attention they saw Corbyn’s views weren’t exactly so outlandish. Plus, the veteran politician looked way more comfortable on the stump than May (granted, not a very difficult thing to do). Still, Labour politicians from more remote areas of the country say traditional rural supporters of the party have yet to warm to Corbyn like those in the big urban centers. He’s still way behind.

A focus on the leaders

This is quite new for Britain. Sure, the leaders of the parties are always important, but part of the benefit of the parliamentary system is that it’s more about party than candidate. Yet to an unprecedented scale, this election has had the feel of a presidential race rather than a parliamentary contest. May is in large part to thank for that. When she called the elections, May’s ratings were so good, and Corbyn’s so poor, that she inevitably thought the best strategy was to polarize the electorate between two hard choices. Rather than signs for the Conservative party, campaign events had banners that read “Theresa May’s team” and candidates started referring to themselves as “Theresa May’s candidate.” As the race tightened, this didn’t seem like the smartest strategy.

No strong third option

You’d think that a choice between two candidates lots of people don’t like could be ideal for the rise of a third way. The Liberal Democrats seemed poised to take advantage of the dynamic and wanted to capitalize on the anti-Brexit voters. But its leader, Tim Farron, has also proven himself to be a deeply flawed candidate. A devout Christian, it took him forever to say that he didn’t think being gay was a sin, for instance. Not quite in line with the party’s traditional liberal social policies.

Brexit

The U.K.’s decision to withdraw from the EU, and May’s need to execute on that decision, is what drove this whole election to begin with. No matter what happens, there’s no going back on Brexit. Labour has said it will respect the referendum results. But anything short of a clear victory for May could affect her leverage in negotiating the terms of a “hard” Brexit. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority, a “soft” Brexit could become more likely—meaning the country would keep certain aspects of the EU, such as migration policy and the single market.

The terror attacks

Britain has suffered three terror attacks in as many months, the latest on Saturday, when three attackers killed at least eight people in the heart of London. This seemed like an issue that was tailor made for the Conservatives to beat Labour, particularly since most of the questions surrounding Corbyn involve his supposedly peace-mongering attitude toward the world.

By contrast, May has tried to portray herself as a strong leader willing to sacrifice human rights in order to catch dangerous would-be terrorists. The problem, though, is that she was Home Secretary for six years, a position that is ostensibly responsible for protecting the country from terrorism. Corbyn has not been shy in pointing out that May oversaw austerity measures that involved slashing the police force, a move that some have blamed for stretching law enforcement. The man who blew himself up outside an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, for example, had been reported to police five times before the attack.

The stakes are so high for May that even a small victory could be the same as a defeat. The Financial Times explains:

Assessments of what victory would look like vary. The FT’s Philip Stephens says “anything less than a majority of 50 would be a serious disappointment for Mrs May”. John Curtice, the veteran pollster, says “anything much lower than 70” would be a setback.

Failing to double her majority to at least 34 would be a serious — perhaps fatal — blow to Mrs May; a majority of more than 100 would be a powerful vindication of her decision to call an early vote. It would also boost sterling because markets believe a strong majority will give Mrs May room to compromise in the Brexit negotiations, allowing her to swat aside the objections of hardline Conservatives.

That means that unless May wins by a wide margin, she could actually emerge from the election as a weaker leader than she was before the campaign, which she initiated.