In the tradition of the Clintonometer and the Trump Apocalypse Watch, the Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
Montana’s suddenly violent special House election appears set to end with victory for Republican and amateur wrestler Greg Gianforte. From what we know so far, though, Gianforte is probably only going to be winning his race by a margin in the high single digits. That’s not great for the Republican Party given that it’s held this House seat since the ‘90s in elections that haven’t gotten closer than 11 points since 2000. Trump won the state in November, meanwhile, by 20 points. A straight-out Republican loss would have been extremely bad news for the party’s 2018 outlook and, by extension, for Trump’s chances of paying for his many heinous crimes. Tonight, then, is merely regular bad news. We’re not going to raise our percentage likelihood over it, but those scoring at home should consider our 35 percent to be a more solid and robust 35 percent than yesterday.
Photo illustration by Natalie Matthews-Ramo. Photos by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Win McNamee/Getty Images, Chris Kleponis-Pool/Getty Images, Drew Angerer/Getty Images, and Peter Parks-Pool/Getty Images.
