Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said Friday that no U.S. combat troops will stay on in Iraq once ISIS is defeated. Abadi was attempting to knock down recent reports that he was in talks with the Trump administration about a long-term presence of “several thousand” U.S. troops.
There’s reason to be skeptical about this. After all, the last time U.S. troops pulled out of Iraq, they were back just three years later. Abadi maintains that the U.S. troops already operating in his country, about 7,000, are merely acting as advisers, but many serve close to the front lines around Mosul and have played a much more active role in combat against ISIS than expected. A similar hedge about “combat” roles could be used to keep a large U.S. force in the country, and given the fears about future sectarian conflict in Iraq when ISIS is finally pushed out, these “advisers” might have their hands full.
So far, in its counterterrorism strategy, the Trump administration has continued the Obama administration’s preference for relying on airstrikes, special forces raids, and training and equipping local forces, rather than large, costly, and politically unpopular troop deployments. But there are some signs that could change.
Last month, the White House announced it was giving the Pentagon greater latitude to determine U.S. troop levels in Iraq and Syria. In addition to mulling a long-term troop presence in Iraq, Pentagon officials are also discussing deployments of conventional ground troops to Syria to bolster the several hundred special operations forces already there assisting local groups in fighting ISIS. That mission has recently been complicated by Trump’s abrupt change of heart about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as well as Turkey’s recent airstrikes against U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters.
Military officials are also discussing plans to add 3,000 to 5,000 troops in Afghanistan, where the Taliban has been rapidly regaining territory. U.S. Marines recently returned to Helmand province, a region they had left in 2014 after pushing out the Taliban.
These numbers are still far smaller than the tens of thousands of troops deployed at the height of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but, still, these moves may represent a shift. While Trump has been skeptical, going back to his campaign, about large troop deployments, some of his advisers have reportedly been trying to get him to keep an open mind. And given his mostly deferential attitude toward “my generals,” as he often refers to them, it wouldn’t be surprising if the U.S. military footprint in these countries grows significantly in the coming months.
And Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan may not be the only countries: In March the Trump administration declared Somalia an “area of active hostilities,” giving the military expanded targeting authority in the fight against the Islamist group al-Shabab. This week, a Navy SEAL was killed in an operation against al-Shabab—the first U.S. combat death in Somalia since the “Black Hawk Down” incident
