Wednesday’s election in the Netherlands was already being viewed as a bellwether of the health of Europe’s far right and the first in a series of crucial European elections this year that could determine the future of the EU. In the past few days, it’s also taken on even greater international significance with unexpected contributions to the debate from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iowa Congressman Steve King.
The staunchly anti-immigration King has a longstanding relationship with Geert Wilders, the far-right anti-Islam Dutch politician hoping for an upset victory on Wednesday. King has invited Wilders to Washington in the past, and on Sunday he approvingly tweeted a link to a story about Wilders and commended him for understanding that “We can’t restore our civilization with somebody else’s babies.”
What King was applauding started on Saturday, when a plane carrying the Turkish foreign minister was barred from landing in the Netherlands, to prevent him from addressing a rally in Rotterdam. The minister, a member of Erdogan’s Islamist AKP party, had been hoping to gain support from Turkish expatriates for a controversial referendum that would amend the Turkish constitution to grant the president sweeping new powers. The Dutch authorities cited concerns about public order to bar the plane, but the move prompted protests in Rotterdam and in several cities in Turkey. (These protests were what prompted the story King was reacting to.) Erdogan denounced Dutch leaders as “Nazi remnants.” He had made similar comments about the Germans after planned pro-referendum rallies were blocked there last week.
Wilders, whose party had pressured the government to block the Turkish minister, praised the move and took credit for it. (And King praised it too.) The Dutch government, meanwhile, has warned its citizens to be cautious about travel to Turkey. The whole situation, as Ishaan Tharoor notes, is beneficial to both Erdogan and Wilders, exciting their base ahead of crucial votes.
Wilders is a veteran of this fight, campaigning for a shutdown of Muslim immigration to his country and banning the Quran back when Donald Trump was still selling steaks and hosting game shows. Attempts by Dutch authorities to silence him through the legal system, including a 2016 conviction for inciting discrimination and insulting Moroccans, have been ineffective and may have even backfired. He’s continued his vicious rhetoric, referring to Moroccan immigrants as “scum” just last month, and at various points has been leading in the polls. Riding the momentum of global populist backlash that produced Brexit (Wilders also favors pulling the Netherlands out of the EU) and Trump’s victory, this election may be Wilders’ best chance yet. If he shocks the political establishment of a country traditionally known for its liberalism and tolerance on Wednesday, it would bode well for the far-right in upcoming elections in France, Germany, and possibly Italy later this year.
At the moment, Wilders actually becoming prime minister still looks like a long shot. For one thing, Wilders’ Party for Freedom has been slipping a bit in the polls in recent weeks, and now looks likely to finish second behind current Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s party. For another, even if the Party for Freedom gets the most seats in parliament, it could still be shut out of government: In the best scenario it would likely win about 25 seats in the 150-seat parliament, and mainstream parties are likely to forge a coalition to keep Wilders out of power.
Still, becoming the largest party in parliament would be a significant victory for Wilders, giving him a legitimate platform for pillorying Dutch leaders for ignoring the will of Dutch voters. In the long term, this might even be better for his movement than actually having to govern and forge coalitions with other parties that would probably require diluting his core message. King’s party never had to make that kind of sacrifice.
